La política de divisas de Corea del Sur y el rol del fondo de pensiones en estabilizar el won

South Korea's National Pension Service (NPS), the country's largest institutional investor with $542 billion in foreign assets, has emerged as a pivotal actor in the nation's foreign exchange (FX) strategy. Amid persistent weakness in the won-Asia's worst-performing currency in 2025-the NPS has extended its currency swap agreement with the Bank of Korea (BOK) and intensified its hedging programs. These measures, now set to continue through 2026, aim to stabilize the FX market while mitigating risks for institutional investors. For foreign investors and capital flows, the implications are profound, reshaping South Korea's role in global currency dynamics and offering insights into the interplay between policy coordination and market stability.

Strategic Expansion of the NPS's FX Tools

The NPS's currency swap facility with the BOK has been expanded to $65 billion, up from an initial $10 billion in 2022, reflecting a growing reliance on institutional coordination to manage exchange rate volatility. This swap allows the NPS to borrow U.S. dollars from the BOK's foreign exchange reserves, reducing the need for direct dollar purchases in the open market and easing downward pressure on the won. By accessing liquidity through this channel, the NPS can hedge its vast foreign asset portfolio more efficiently, shielding its long-term investment returns from sharp currency fluctuations.

Complementing the swap is the NPS's strategic hedging program, which maintains a cap of 10% of its foreign-currency assets under hedging when exchange rates deviate significantly from long-term averages. This framework, extended through 2026, ensures systematic dollar sales at critical levels-Citigroup analysts estimate these interventions could trigger stabilizing sales around 1,470–1,475 won. Additionally, the NPS has adopted a more flexible and less predictable hedging approach, a shift policymakers believe will enhance its effectiveness in supporting the won without signaling rigid intervention thresholds.

Impact on Foreign Investors and Capital Flows

The NPS's expanded role has direct implications for foreign investors navigating South Korea's capital flows. By reducing the NPS's need to purchase dollars in the open market, the swap facility alleviates selling pressure on the won, which had weakened by 8% in the second half of 2025 due to equity outflows and overseas investment. This stabilization is critical for foreign investors, as a weaker won increases the cost of repatriating profits and heightens currency risk for cross-border transactions.

Market reactions underscore the program's immediate efficacy. The won gained 0.71% against the dollar immediately after the swap extension was announced, signaling investor confidence in the NPS's ability to counteract depreciation. For capital flows, the NPS's hedging activities create a more predictable environment, potentially attracting foreign institutional investors who might otherwise avoid volatile emerging markets. As Kookmin Bank economist Minhyeok Lee notes, the NPS's large-scale transactions can "significantly impact currency supply and demand imbalances," offering a buffer against sudden capital flight.

However, the program's success hinges on dynamic management of hedging ratios and clear triggering conditions. While the NPS's combined strategic and tactical hedging ratio is capped at 15%, deviations from this threshold could reintroduce volatility if not managed transparently. Experts caution that the NPS must balance explicit hedging costs with the broader goal of market stability, ensuring its interventions do not distort natural FX market dynamics.

Broader Strategic Implications

The NPS's initiatives highlight a broader trend in South Korea's FX policy: the integration of institutional investors into macroeconomic stabilization efforts. By leveraging the NPS's scale and flexibility, policymakers have created a hybrid model that combines central bank interventions with private-sector resources. This approach not only strengthens the won but also reduces the BOK's reliance on traditional FX reserves, preserving its capacity to address other economic priorities.

For foreign investors, the NPS's role signals a more resilient South Korean FX market. The won's recent stabilization near 1,470–1,475 won-a level consistent with Citigroup's projections-demonstrates the program's capacity to anchor expectations. Yet, the long-term success of these measures will depend on global monetary conditions and the NPS's ability to adapt its hedging strategies to evolving risks.

Conclusion

South Korea's National Pension Service has redefined its role in FX policy, transforming from a passive institutional investor into a proactive stabilizer of the won. Through its expanded swap facility and flexible hedging programs, the NPS has provided a critical buffer against currency weakness, offering reassurance to foreign investors and moderating capital outflows. As the program extends through 2026, its effectiveness will be a key barometer for South Korea's ability to navigate global monetary uncertainty while maintaining investor confidence. For markets, the NPS's actions underscore the growing importance of institutional coordination in managing FX volatility-a trend likely to shape investment strategies in emerging markets for years to come.