¿La acción de Roblox (RBLX) es un buen comprador o una burbuja a pesar del sentimiento mixto?

The stock of Roblox Corporation (RBLX) has long been a subject of intense debate among investors. As we approach the end of 2025, the company finds itself at a crossroads, with conflicting signals emerging from short-term bearish sentiment and robust long-term fundamentals. This tension between immediate pessimism and enduring growth potential raises a critical question: is RBLX a speculative bubble or a compelling long-term investment?

Short-Term Bearishness: A Retreating Tide

Short interest in RBLX has declined notably in recent weeks, offering a glimpse of shifting investor sentiment. As of December 15, 2025, short interest stood at 13.92 million shares, representing 2.23% of the public float-down from 2.69% in November. This reduction suggests that some bearish traders are either covering positions or losing conviction in their short-term bets. The short interest ratio (SIR), at 1.86 days to cover, further indicates that the market is not overly burdened by short-term selling pressure. While these metrics do not guarantee a reversal in the stock's trajectory, they do signal a moderation in pessimism.

However, technical indicators and broader sentiment remain deeply bearish. A recent analysis forecasts a potential 39.07% drop in RBLX's share price by January 29, 2026, driven by an oversold RSI of 25.65 and a Fear & Greed Index reading of 39. Legal challenges, including lawsuits over content moderation and child safety, have also weighed on the stock, contributing to a 6% single-day decline and a 13% monthly drop. These factors have emboldened short sellers, with one strategy projecting a 76.47% return on investment over 129 days if the downward trend persists.

Long-Term Fundamentals: A Story of Growth and Resilience

Despite the near-term turbulence, Roblox's long-term fundamentals remain compelling. The company's fourth-quarter 2024 results underscore its ability to scale: revenue surged 32% year-over-year to $988.2 million, while average daily active users (DAUs) rose 19% to 85.3 million. For 2025, Roblox has set ambitious revenue guidance of $4.245 billion to $4.345 billion, reflecting continued confidence in its platform's expansion. Updated projections for the second quarter of 2025 even suggest revenue could reach $1.16 billion, with user engagement metrics-such as 27.4 billion hours of platform usage-highlighting the stickiness of its ecosystem.

A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis further supports the case for RBLX. As of December 2025, the stock's intrinsic value is estimated at $94.64–$94.84 per share, aligning closely with its current price of approximately $81.81. This suggests that, despite recent volatility, the market has not entirely discounted the company's future cash-generating potential.

Valuation Dilemmas: A Premium or a Bubble?

The most contentious issue remains Roblox's valuation. Its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.9x–15.6x is starkly higher than the peer average of 5.5x and the US entertainment industry average of 1.4x. A proprietary "Fair Ratio" analysis, which accounts for growth, margins, and risk, suggests a more justified P/S of 4.9x–5.1x. This discrepancy implies that RBLX is trading at a significant premium relative to its revenue, raising valid concerns about overvaluation.

Yet this premium must be contextualized. Roblox's growth narrative is not merely about revenue-it is about capturing a nascent metaverse market. The company's ability to monetize user engagement, expand into new demographics, and innovate in virtual experiences could justify a higher multiple over time. The DCF model, which incorporates these growth dynamics, suggests the stock is roughly in line with its fair value.

Strategic Implications for Investors

The dichotomy between short-term bearishness and long-term optimism presents a nuanced investment opportunity. For risk-tolerant investors, the current price correction-driven by technical overselling and legal concerns-may offer an entry point into a fundamentally strong business. However, the elevated P/S ratio demands caution. A disciplined approach would involve hedging against downside risks while monitoring key metrics: user growth, regulatory developments, and the sustainability of monetization trends.

For short sellers, the declining short interest and improving fundamentals pose a challenge. While the bearish case remains valid in the near term, the long-term trajectory of RBLX suggests that short positions should be managed carefully, ideally with a time horizon no longer than 90–120 days.

Conclusion

Roblox's stock is neither a clear-cut buy nor an outright bubble. It is a high-growth asset with significant risks and rewards. The declining short interest and DCF valuation provide a floor for the stock, while the P/S ratio and legal headwinds cap its upside. Investors must weigh these factors against their risk tolerance and time horizon. In a market increasingly defined by volatility and uncertainty, RBLX exemplifies the delicate balance between speculation and substance.