Press Freedom and Investor Confidence in the Philippines: A Fragile Balance?

The Philippine government’s condemnation of the killing of veteran journalist Percival Mabasa in October 2022, and its broader stance on media safety, underscores a critical tension between democratic progress and systemic violence. While recent data suggest a temporary decline in journalist deaths, the country’s legacy of impunity, political volatility, and institutional fragility could deter foreign investment, particularly as the Marcos administration seeks to attract capital in 2025 and beyond.

The assassination of Mabasa—a 63-year-old radio broadcaster and critic of both Duterte’s “war on drugs” and Marcos’s policies—highlighted the risks faced by journalists covering corruption and human rights abuses. The National Union of Journalists of the Philippines (NUJP) condemned the attack, noting that Mabasa’s murder occurred in the capital, Las Piñas, and followed the killing of Rey Blanco, a journalist in Negros Oriental, earlier in 2022. These deaths added to the Philippines’ grim record of over 110 journalist killings since 1997, with just 12% of cases resulting in convictions, according to UNESCO.

The government has sought to frame its response as part of a “paradigm shift.” In 2024, the Philippines reported zero journalist deaths for the first time in two decades, a milestone attributed to collaboration between law enforcement and civil society. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration also cooperated with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the March 2025 arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte, charged with crimes against humanity for orchestrating extrajudicial killings during his “war on drugs.” This marked a break from Duterte’s rhetoric, which once dismissed slain journalists as “corrupt” or “deserving of death.”

However, systemic risks persist. Civil society groups warn that threats to press freedom remain entrenched. The Anti-Terror Act continues to be weaponized against critics, with journalists like Jesusa Bernardo languishing in prison on fabricated charges since 2017. Online harassment has surged during the 2025 midterm elections, with journalists covering politically sensitive topics facing doxxing and death threats. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) ranks the Philippines 147th out of 180 countries in press freedom, behind even authoritarian regimes like Vietnam (116th).

The implications for investors are stark. Sectors reliant on stable governance—such as infrastructure, mining, or tech—face reputational and operational risks in a climate where 32 journalists were killed in a single massacre in 2009, and where government rhetoric often conflates dissent with criminality. The U.S. “Khashoggi Ban,” which restricts visas for officials linked to extraterritorial repression, could set a precedent for global scrutiny of Philippine officials implicated in violence against journalists.

Economically, the Philippines has shown resilience. GDP grew by 6.3% in 2023, outpacing regional peers. Yet foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remain constrained by governance concerns. The resumption of EU-Philippines free trade talks in March 2025—suspended since 2017 over Duterte’s human rights record—signals a strategic pivot toward economic engagement. However, the EU’s conditions for finalizing the deal, including progress on human rights reforms, remain unmet. Meanwhile, Marcos’s administration faces accusations of continuing Duterte’s “red-tagging” tactics, labeling critics as communist threats to justify harassment.

The ICC’s indictment of Duterte, while historic, has not erased investor skepticism. Over 800 deaths linked to the “war on drugs” persist as unresolved stains on the Marcos government’s credibility. Without systemic reforms—such as dismantling repressive laws or establishing independent accountability mechanisms—the Philippines risks perpetuating its reputation as a high-risk market.

Conclusion:

The Philippines’ recent progress in reducing journalist killings offers a glimmer of hope, but its press freedom crisis remains unresolved. Investors must weigh the potential rewards of a growing Southeast Asian economy against the risks of operating in a nation where impunity for violence against dissent is near-total. While the EU’s trade talks and Marcos’s ICC cooperation signal incremental change, the lack of concrete reforms—paired with lingering threats to free speech—suggests caution.

For capital to flow confidently, the government must demonstrate more than symbolic gestures. Metrics like CPJ’s journalist fatality count, UNESCO’s impunity rate, and EU trade deal milestones will be critical indicators. Until then, the Philippines’ investment appeal will remain a fragile balance between economic promise and democratic peril.