President-elect Trump's Economic Agenda: A Second Term's Potential Impact

With the election of President-elect Donald Trump, the U.S. economy is poised for potential changes that could significantly impact growth, inflation, and trade dynamics. Trump's proposed economic policies, including tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration restrictions, have the potential to reshape the economic landscape. This article explores the potential implications of these policies and their impact on the U.S. economy.

Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese imports and universal 10% tariffs on all imports could significantly affect consumer prices and inflation. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that a 10% universal tariff would cost the average U.S. household $2,600 annually, while a 60% tariff on Chinese imports could add another $1,700. These higher costs would likely be passed on to consumers, driving up prices and contributing to inflation. Nomura economists forecast inflation to rise to 3.1% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026 due to these tariffs.



Trump's immigration policies, including mass deportations and stricter enforcement, could significantly impact the U.S. labor market and economic growth. By deporting millions of immigrants, Trump could exacerbate labor shortages in sectors like agriculture, hospitality, and construction, driving up wages and potentially slowing economic growth. Stricter enforcement could deter new immigrants, further reducing the labor supply and potentially pushing up inflation. However, the extent of these impacts depends on the specifics of Trump's policies and the ability of the labor market to adapt.



Trump's proposed tax cuts, including lower corporate tax rates and elimination of certain taxes, could initially boost consumer spending and economic growth. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which lowered corporate tax rates and provided individual tax cuts, stimulated consumer spending in its early years. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, extending these tax cuts could increase consumer spending by $1,740 for middle-class families and $376,910 for top earners in 2026. However, the long-term effects depend on how the cuts are financed and whether they lead to higher deficits and inflation.

Trump's deregulation policies, particularly in the environmental sector, could have mixed impacts on the U.S. economy and inflation. By rolling back regulations, such as those governing clean air and water, businesses may experience reduced compliance costs, potentially boosting economic growth. However, this could also lead to increased pollution and environmental degradation, which could negatively impact public health and potentially drive up healthcare costs, indirectly affecting inflation. The overall net effect on inflation and economic growth is uncertain and depends on the specific regulations targeted and the extent to which businesses pass on cost savings to consumers.



In conclusion, President-elect Trump's proposed economic policies have the potential to significantly impact the U.S. economy. While tariffs and immigration restrictions could drive up inflation and slow economic growth, tax cuts and deregulation could provide a short-term boost. The long-term effects of these policies depend on various factors, including the specifics of the policies, the ability of the labor market to adapt, and the potential impacts on inflation and economic growth. As the Trump administration takes office, it will be crucial to monitor these developments and assess their impact on the U.S. economy.