Riesgo político en las elecciones de medio mandato de EE. UU. de 2026: las políticas de Trump y su impacto doble en el sentimiento del GOP y la asignación de activos

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections loom as a pivotal test for President Donald Trump's second term, with political risk increasingly shaped by his perceived extravagance and brand-driven policies. These dynamics are not only reshaping GOP voter sentiment but also recalibrating asset allocation strategies across global markets. As the electorate grapples with economic disillusionment and investors navigate policy-driven uncertainties, the interplay between politics and finance has never been more consequential.

The Erosion of GOP Voter Confidence

Trump's economic stewardship has become a double-edged sword for the Republican Party. While his 2024 campaign capitalized on voter frustration over inflation, his administration's policies have failed to deliver on promises of affordability. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll reveals that 57% of Americans disapprove of Trump's economic management, with his overall approval rating at 38%-a historic low for a sitting president. This dissatisfaction is particularly acute among younger voters: Gen Z, born after 2002, increasingly disapproves of Trump's leadership, signaling a generational shift in GOP loyalty.

The administration's aggressive trade policies, including tariffs of 10–20% on imports and steep levies on China, have exacerbated inflationary pressures. By October 2025, 73% of Republicans reported rising costs, mirroring similar struggles among Democrats. These policies have blurred partisan lines, creating a shared sense of economic anxiety that undermines traditional GOP messaging. Meanwhile, public trust in government has plummeted to 17%, with Democrats at a staggering 9%. This erosion of trust, compounded by Trump's perceived entanglement with corporate interests-such as equity stakes in Intel and MP Materials-has fueled accusations of "crony capitalism", further alienating moderate voters.

Asset Allocation in a Trump-Driven Landscape

Investors are recalibrating portfolios in response to Trump's policy agenda, which prioritizes deregulation, tax cuts, and protectionism. A landmark executive order in August 2025 expanded access to private assets-such as private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrency-in 401(k) plans, signaling a shift toward alternative investments. This move has spurred demand for illiquid assets, with UK wealth managers favoring U.S. equities (94%) and emerging markets (90%) as safe havens amid geopolitical uncertainties.

However, the risks of Trump's "state capitalism" model are evident. Critics warn that government equity stakes in private firms distort market competition, favoring politically connected entities over innovation-driven ones. This has led to a surge in tangible assets like luxury collectibles and real estate, perceived as hedges against policy volatility. Gold, too, has gained traction as a "safe-haven" asset, with prices rising amid fears of politically influenced monetary policy and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence.

The administration's fiscal policies further complicate the landscape. Corporate tax cuts-reducing the effective rate to 12%, the lowest in U.S. history-are expected to stimulate sectors like semiconductors and AI data centers. Yet, these measures come at a cost: the deficit-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed 7% by 2026, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability and upward pressure on bond yields. Deregulation and stricter immigration policies, while beneficial to small-cap stocks and value equities, also risk inflationary pressures from tighter labor markets.

Navigating the Political-Economic Nexus

The 2026 midterms are poised to reflect a divided Congress, with Democrats likely to gain the House and Republicans retaining the Senate. This gridlock will amplify uncertainty, forcing investors to adopt a top-down approach that balances sector-specific opportunities with macroeconomic risks. For instance, while Trump's tariffs may benefit domestic industrials, they threaten prolonged trade conflicts with China, Mexico, and Europe-scenarios that could destabilize global supply chains.

For GOP voters, the challenge lies in reconciling Trump's brand-driven populism with the realities of economic stagnation. His focus on "pricing" as a midterm issue may resonate with working-class constituencies but risks alienating younger, more diverse demographics. Meanwhile, investors must weigh the short-term gains of deregulation and tax cuts against the long-term costs of fiscal imbalances and market distortions.

Conclusion

The 2026 midterms will serve as a referendum on Trump's economic vision-a vision that has simultaneously galvanized his base and alienated moderates. For investors, the key lies in hedging against policy-driven volatility while capitalizing on sectors aligned with Trump's agenda. Yet, as history shows, political risk is rarely linear. The interplay between voter sentiment and asset allocations will hinge on whether Trump can reconcile his brand-driven policies with the pragmatic demands of a fractured electorate-and a global economy increasingly wary of ideological overreach.