¿Es la acción de PayPal, considerada “odia”, una oportunidad de inversión con un valor subestimado para el año 2026?

The stock market often rewards patience, particularly for contrarian investors willing to challenge prevailing sentiment. PayPal Holdings (PYPL), a company long maligned by retail investors, appears to fit this pattern. Despite robust fundamentals-31% annualized earnings growth guidance, a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8, and a $15 billion share buyback program-the stock trades at a significant discount to its historical and sector averages. This disconnect between performance and perception invites a closer examination of whether PayPal represents a compelling value opportunity in 2026.

Fundamentals: A Story of Resilience and Growth

PayPal's Q4 2025 results underscore its operational strength. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.19, exceeding estimates of $1.12, while revenue reached $8.37 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year. For 2026, management anticipates full-year adjusted EPS of $4.95–$5.10, surpassing the $4.90 consensus estimate. These figures suggest a trajectory of disciplined earnings growth, supported by a 47% transaction margin in Q4 2025-a 1.2 percentage point improvement from the prior year.

The valuation metrics further highlight undervaluation. PayPal's forward P/E of 11.8 is less than one-third of the NASDAQ 100's 37.57 multiple, while its price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.61 implies the market is underestimating long-term earnings potential. Share repurchases, a critical tool for enhancing shareholder value, are also accelerating. The company announced a $15 billion buyback program, with $6 billion expected to be spent in 2025 alone. These actions signal confidence in PayPal's ability to generate cash flow and allocate capital effectively.

Retail Sentiment: A Contrarian's Opportunity

Retail investor sentiment toward PayPal remains mixed, with Simply Wall St users estimating fair value between $74.76 and $174.92. This wide dispersion reflects skepticism about the company's ability to sustain growth amid fierce competition and macroeconomic headwinds. However, such skepticism may be misplaced.

The market's pessimism appears rooted in short-term concerns, such as softness in branded volume growth and margin pressures. Yet these challenges are being addressed through strategic reinvention. PayPal's pivot from a pure payments provider to a commerce insights platform-via initiatives like the Transaction Insights Program and PayPal Ads Manager-has diversified revenue streams into high-margin services. These moves not only reduce reliance on transaction volume but also create new avenues for monetization, such as data analytics and advertising.

Competitive Positioning and Moat Resilience

PayPal's competitive advantages remain formidable. Its dominance in branded checkout and Venmo positions it as a critical player in consumer-facing digital payments. While unbranded processing faces competition from Stripe and Adyen, PayPal's ecosystem-bolstered by partnerships with USD.AI, Google, and ChatGPT-enables it to leverage artificial intelligence for fraud prevention and personalized offers. These innovations reinforce its long-term moat by enhancing user retention and expanding into adjacent markets.

Management's strategic shifts further strengthen resilience. Cost controls, a focus on higher-margin flows, and disciplined capital allocation are driving efficiency gains. The company's $15 billion buyback program, coupled with its 4–5% annual transaction margin growth target, suggests a commitment to delivering value to shareholders. Analysts have adjusted price targets upward to $76.75, implying a 31.2% upside from current levels.

A Case for Contrarian Value

The key question for investors is whether PayPal's current valuation reflects its long-term potential. The company's fundamentals-strong earnings growth, attractive valuation metrics, and a resilient moat-suggest it is being unfairly discounted. Retail sentiment, while cautious, is beginning to shift as strategic initiatives gain traction.

For contrarian investors, the risks are not negligible. Competition in digital payments is intensifying, and macroeconomic volatility could dampen transaction volumes. However, PayPal's proactive reinvention and robust financial position provide a margin of safety. At a forward P/E of 11.8 and a PEG of 0.61, the stock appears to offer a compelling risk-reward profile for those willing to look beyond short-term noise.

Conclusion

PayPal's journey from "hated" to "undervalued" encapsulates the essence of contrarian value investing. By focusing on the company's operational strengths, strategic agility, and favorable valuation, investors may uncover a rare opportunity in a market often driven by emotion. As the fintech landscape evolves, PayPal's ability to adapt and innovate could prove to be its greatest asset-and its stock price, a mispriced gem waiting to be recognized.