Lidiar con la volatilidad del mercado en 2026: Prepararse para las sorpresas en un entorno económico en constante cambio

The global economy in 2026 stands at a crossroads. While growth remains resilient-projected at 2.7% in purchasing power parity-weighted terms-this resilience is underpinned by fragile foundations. The AI revolution and policy interventions have offset the drag from trade wars and fragmented capital flows, yet inflationary pressures persist, particularly in the U.S., where tariffs and sticky price dynamics are expected to keep inflation above 3%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts, potentially bringing the federal funds target to 3.25-3.50% by year-end, face political and legal headwinds. In Europe, a modest cyclical recovery is anticipated, but inflation will likely remain below the 2% target, enabling the ECB to ease monetary policy. Asia's growth, meanwhile, hinges on the tech cycle and fiscal stimulus, though U.S. tariffs threaten conventional trade.

This backdrop of uneven growth, shifting monetary policies, and geopolitical tensions demands a rethinking of investment strategies. The coming year will test the resilience of portfolios, as volatility is expected to rise across markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), though currently subdued, remains a barometer of uncertainty. Investors must prepare for surprises by embracing strategic diversification and robust scenario planning.

Strategic Diversification: Beyond Traditional Asset Classes

The first pillar of navigating 2026's volatility lies in strategic diversification. A total portfolio approach (TPA), which emphasizes interconnectedness and holistic construction, is gaining traction. This framework prioritizes resilience, liquidity, and alignment with long-term objectives, enabling dynamic rebalancing in response to shifting conditions. For instance, equity long/short (ELS) strategies, which allow investors to take both long and short positions, have historically captured equity market gains while experiencing smaller drawdowns. These strategies are particularly well-suited to exploit sector dispersion driven by technological innovation and policy shifts.

Moreover, real assets such as infrastructure and real estate, managed by value-add teams, offer exposure to secular themes. Fixed income diversification is equally critical. Expanding credit exposure beyond corporate bonds to emerging market debt, securitized credit, and private credit can yield attractive returns while mitigating concentration risks.. International equities, especially in emerging markets, further diversify AI-driven U.S. tech exposure.

Alternative assets, including gold and equity market-neutral funds, also play a role in enhancing portfolio resilience. These instruments, with low correlations to traditional markets, provide a buffer against systemic shocks. As BlackRock notes, a mix of emerging market bonds, dividend stocks, and alternative strategies can generate income while managing volatility.

Hedging Techniques: Balancing Growth and Protection

In high-volatility environments, hedging becomes a necessity. ELS strategies, particularly market-neutral or low-net exposure approaches, offer distinct advantages. By reducing beta and volatility, these strategies have historically delivered steady gains even in bear markets, as seen during the 2000–2002 and 2007–2008 downturns. Managers can further enhance protection by adjusting gross exposure, shrinking position sizes, or using derivatives.

Long/short beta-1 strategies, such as 130/30 or portable alpha, are also gaining popularity. These frameworks allow long-only investors to access hedge fund-like exposure. For example, a 130/30 strategy leverages long positions while hedging with short sales, reducing downside risk without sacrificing upside potential.

Scenario Planning: Preparing for the Unpredictable

Scenario planning is the cornerstone of adapting to 2026's uncertainties. Traditional forecasting methods have proven inadequate in an era of radical unpredictability, from geopolitical shocks to technological disruptions. As MosaicApp emphasizes, scenario planning requires continuous updating and agile decision-making to navigate diverse outcomes.

Key geopolitical risks include U.S.-China tensions, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and potential interventions in the Western Hemisphere, such as Venezuela. These variables necessitate stress-testing portfolios against worst-case scenarios. For instance, defense technology, critical minerals, and renewable energy sectors are poised to benefit from strategic autonomy trends. Conversely, trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions could weigh on conventional industries.

Frameworks like Meketa Investments' "First Responders," "Second Responders," and "Diversifiers" provide a structured approach to managing volatility. Similarly, BlackRock advocates for a mix of selective risk-taking and income generation, emphasizing diversification and income-focused assets.

Conclusion: A Call for Prudence and Agility

The 2026 investment landscape demands a dual focus on resilience and adaptability. Strategic diversification, through TPA, ELS strategies, and alternative assets, offers a bulwark against volatility. Meanwhile, scenario planning ensures preparedness for a range of outcomes, from geopolitical shocks to sector-specific disruptions. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate their easing cycles, and as AI-driven growth reshapes industries, investors must remain vigilant. The key lies not in predicting the future but in building portfolios that can withstand it.