Inversión de valor en un entorno de volatilidad después de los beneficios: identificación de acciones subvaluadas con sólidos fundamentos que están dispuestos a recuperarse a principios de 2026

The fourth quarter of 2025 has been marked by a delicate balance between optimism and caution. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio, now approaching historically elevated levels, has left little room for earnings disappointments, creating a high-stakes environment for corporate performance according to market analysis. While Q3 and Q4 earnings growth forecasts of 7.7% and 6.3%, respectively, suggest resilience, these figures represent the slowest pace since early 2024, signaling a potential inflection point in the market's trajectory. Amid this backdrop, value investors must navigate a landscape where macroeconomic risks-sticky inflation, a softening labor market, and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts-threaten to amplify volatility as research indicates. Yet, within this uncertainty lie opportunities for those who can identify undervalued assets with durable fundamentals.

The Case for Selectivity and Discipline

The principles of value investing-buying undervalued securities with strong intrinsic value-remain as relevant as ever. However, the current environment demands a nuanced approach. As noted by a report from JPMorgan, the interplay of AI-driven growth and trade policy uncertainty has created a "hybrid" economic landscape, where traditional diversifiers like gold and small-cap stocks have shown resilience. For instance, the S&P 500's historical tendency to gain 4.4% in Q4 when up year-to-date through September suggests a constructive seasonal bias. Yet, this optimism must be tempered by the risks of a potential government shutdown distorting labor market data or the Fed's policy path diverging from expectations.

Undervalued Stocks with 2026 Rebound Potential

Three sectors-healthcare, technology, and energy-stand out as fertile ground for value investors seeking long-term gains. Below, we analyze specific stocks with compelling fundamentals and strong rebound potential.

Elevance Health (ELV): Navigating Margin Pressures

Elevance Health, a leading health benefits provider, reported Q3 2025 revenue of $50.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase. However, its operating profit for the Health Benefits segment declined by 62.5% due to a higher benefit expense ratio of 91.3%. This decline reflects broader challenges in the Medicare sector, where rising costs are squeezing margins. Yet, the company's disciplined cost management-evidenced by a 130-basis-point improvement in its operating expense ratio-suggests a path to recovery. With shares testing a key resistance level near $360, a breakout could propel the stock toward $450, assuming cost controls and regulatory clarity stabilize its margins.

The Trade Desk (TTD): Advertising's Resilient Innovator

The Trade Desk, a digital advertising platform, delivered Q3 2025 revenue of $739 million, a 18% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA reaching 43% of revenue. The company's international growth, particularly in EMEA and APAC, outpaced North America, and its leadership in Connected TV (CTV)-accounting for 50% of its business-positions it to benefit from the ongoing shift to digital media. Despite a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, TTD's aggressive share repurchase program (including a $500 million authorization) signals confidence in its intrinsic value. Analysts view the stock as undervalued, with its current price offering a margin of safety for long-term investors.

Matador Resources (MTDR): Energy's Undervalued Operator

Matador Resources, an oil and gas producer, reported Q3 2025 earnings per share of $1.36, exceeding forecasts by 7.09%, though revenue fell short of expectations. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.4 and a leverage ratio of 0.4 reflect a significant improvement in its balance sheet, with $2 billion in liquidity and a $105 million reduction in its Reserves-Based Loan. Matador's plans to turn online 13.6 net wells in early 2026, coupled with its 20% dividend increase, underscore its commitment to shareholder returns and operational efficiency. With a fair value gap of over 50%, the stock appears poised for a rebound if energy prices stabilize.

Broader Strategic Considerations

The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and the influence of fiscal deficits on the long-term yield curve further complicate the investment landscape. For private equity firms and institutional investors, creative deal structures-such as structured earn-outs and partial exits-are becoming essential to navigate valuation challenges. In this context, value investors should prioritize sectors with durable competitive advantages, such as healthcare and AI-driven SaaS, while avoiding overexposure to cyclical industries like retail and construction as market analysis suggests.

Conclusion

The post-earnings volatility environment of late 2025 demands a disciplined, selective approach to value investing. By focusing on companies like Elevance Health, The Trade Desk, and Matador Resources-each of which demonstrates strong fundamentals and a path to margin improvement-investors can position themselves to capitalize on early 2026's potential rebounds. As always, patience and a long-term perspective remain the cornerstones of successful value investing.