Posicionamiento defensivo en un mundo volátil: el caso de los fondos mutuos de renta variable de bajo riesgo

The global financial landscape in late 2025 is marked by a paradox: equity markets have reached record highs, yet underlying vulnerabilities-ranging from geopolitical tensions to shifting trade policies-suggest a growing risk of correction. In this environment, low-volatility ETFs have emerged as a compelling tool for investors seeking to balance growth aspirations with downside protection. These instruments, which prioritize stocks with historically stable returns, have demonstrated resilience during past market crises and appear increasingly relevant as macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies.

Historical Resilience: Lessons from 2008 and 2020

Low-volatility strategies have consistently outperformed broader markets during periods of systemic stress. During the 2008 financial crisis, the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index, which underlies the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (USMV), fell by 41% between October 2007 and February 2009-significantly less than the 51% decline of the S&P 500 according to Morningstar. Similarly, in the 2020 pandemic-induced crash, low-volatility ETFs mitigated losses by emphasizing firms with robust balance sheets and predictable cash flows. For instance, ESG-focused ETFs within this category exhibited lower volatility and higher abnormal returns during the first quarter of 2020, underscoring the added value of sustainability criteria in crisis scenarios.

Academic research corroborates these observations. Studies highlight that low-volatility strategies often exhibit exposure to factors such as value and profitability, which can enhance resilience during downturns. However, their effectiveness is not universal; these strategies tend to underperform in growth-driven environments, a trade-off that investors must weigh carefully.

Recent Performance and Sectoral Dynamics (2023–2025)

In 2025, low-volatility ETFs have outperformed the broader U.S. market amid heightened uncertainty. The iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (USMV) has risen 4.9% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has declined 1.5% according to Kitces. This divergence reflects the defensive tilt of low-volatility portfolios, which typically overweight sectors like utilities (21.91% in the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF, SPLV) and healthcare, while underweighting high-beta growth stocks according to ETF Database.

The Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), for example, has delivered a 1-year return of -0.22% and a 3-year return of 6.41%, outperforming the S&P 500's 3-year return. This underperformance in bull markets is a known characteristic of low-volatility strategies, but it is offset by their ability to preserve capital during corrections.

Current Market Signals and the Risk of Correction

Several indicators suggest a growing likelihood of a market correction in late 2025. The VIX, or "fear gauge," spiked to 52.87 in November 2025, reflecting investor anxiety over stretched equity valuations and geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the yield curve, which had inverted for 17 months through November 2023, has normalized to a positive 53 basis points as of October 2025 according to YCharts. While this normalization reduces immediate recession risk, the Recession Probability Index (RPI) still stands at 32%, indicating moderate but non-negligible concerns according to YCharts.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. military actions in the Middle East and potential retaliatory measures from Iran, have further exacerbated volatility. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's elevated interest rates and the uncertainty surrounding Trump-era tariff policies have created a climate of caution. J.P. Morgan Research estimates a 40% probability of a U.S. recession in the second half of 2025, a scenario in which low-volatility ETFs could provide critical downside protection.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For investors, the case for low-volatility ETFs hinges on their dual role as both defensive assets and portfolio stabilizers. During corrections, these ETFs can limit losses by avoiding overexposure to speculative sectors. For example, the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF's focus on large-cap, low-beta stocks has historically reduced its sensitivity to market swings.

However, investors must also recognize the limitations of these strategies. Low-volatility ETFs often underperform during sustained bull markets, and their effectiveness depends on economic regimes. In growth-oriented environments, they may lag behind high-beta counterparts. Thus, a balanced approach-combining low-volatility ETFs with other defensive instruments like Treasuries or gold-may be optimal for navigating the current climate.

Conclusion

As the global economy navigates a complex web of trade policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and monetary tightening, low-volatility ETFs offer a pragmatic solution for investors seeking to mitigate downside risk without abandoning equity exposure. Their historical performance during crises, coupled with their recent outperformance in 2025, underscores their value in a defensive portfolio. Yet, as with any strategy, their utility depends on careful alignment with broader market conditions and investor objectives. In a world where uncertainty is the only certainty, these instruments provide a vital layer of resilience.