Bitcoin's Bullish Structure Remains Intact: Continuation Could Lead To Higher Prices Ahead

Bitcoin’s recent price action has underscored its resilience amid heightened volatility, with its technical and fundamental structure pointing to further upside potential. Despite short-term dips, the cryptocurrency’s trajectory since early 2025 suggests a sustained bullish bias, driven by institutional adoption, on-chain metrics, and regulatory clarity. Let’s dissect the data to understand why Bitcoin’s upward momentum could persist.

Technical Indicators: Oversold Conditions and Bullish Fundamentals

Bitcoin’s price surged above $65,000 on May 4, 2025, only to dip to $62,450 by day’s end—a 1.8% decline—reflecting market sensitivity to sentiment-driven news. However, by early May, Bitcoin rebounded to $95,000, erasing a 30% drawdown from its January 2025 all-time high of $109,000. This recovery highlights its ability to absorb short-term volatility.

Key technical signals reinforce the bullish case:
- Resistance and Support: The $95,000–$95,500 zone (March highs) is critical, with further resistance at $100,000 and $109,000. Below $90,000 lies critical support, while $74,000—a “bull/bear trend separator”—remains a key long-term floor.
- RSI and MACD: Bitcoin’s 4-hour RSI dipped to 38 on May 4, signaling oversold conditions that could attract buyers. Meanwhile, the MACD showed a bearish crossover on the 1-hour chart, indicating short-term downward pressure. However, the 200-day moving average remains intact, a bullish sign.

On-Chain Activity: Whales and ETFs Fueling Demand

On-chain data reveals a robust institutional underpinning:
- Whale Accumulation: Glassnode’s analysis shows wallets holding >10,000 BTC (large whales) maintained a net buying trend score of 1.0, indicating accumulation since late April.
- ETF Inflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.3 billion in inflows in late April, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracting $1 billion daily. This institutional capital influx aligns with a Coinbase/EY-Parthenon survey finding 83% of institutional investors plan to increase crypto allocations in 2025.

Regulatory Progress: From Hurdles to Hubs

Regulatory developments have been pivotal:
- U.S.: The Biden administration’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, consolidating seized BTC into national reserves, marked the first formal recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The SEC’s dropping of lawsuits against exchanges like Coinbase, coupled with OCC approval for banks to custody crypto, further legitimized its role.
- Europe: The EU’s MiCA regulation, finalized in early 2025, harmonized standards, while Switzerland and Hong Kong positioned themselves as innovation hubs.
- Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong’s licensing regime for retail crypto trading and Japan’s CBDC pilots underscored regional adoption.

Risks and Catalysts: Navigating the Road Ahead

While the outlook is bullish, risks remain:
- Upside Catalysts: Continued ETF inflows, regulatory clarity in the U.S. (e.g., pending Ethereum ETF approvals), and Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” during macro instability.
- Downside Risks: Regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears), or a prolonged failure to breach $100,000 could trigger corrections.

Conclusion: A Structural Bull Case

Bitcoin’s technical and fundamental landscape suggests its upward trajectory remains intact. With $1.2 million by 2030 projected by ARK Invest and $200,000 by year-end 2025 forecasted by Standard Chartered, the structural drivers—whale accumulation, ETF growth, and regulatory maturation—are firmly in place.

Traders should monitor resistance at $95,500 and support at $74,000, while long-term investors can take comfort in Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge. As VanEck noted, the path to $180,000 by late 2025 hinges on sustained institutional inflows and macro stability. For now, the bullish structure is intact, and higher prices lie ahead.