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Trump claims a war with Iran could be &quot;easily won.&quot; That&#39;s only true if he&#39;s willing to accept American casualties, soaring oil prices and possible chaos in a major Middle Eastern country.<h3 style="text-align: start">Key takeaways:😉</h3><ul style="text-align: start"><li>Trump has been threatening to attack Iran for weeks.</li><li>He hasn’t said exactly why.</li><li>Attacking Iran would be a much bigger mess than the mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.</li><li>Trump’s military advisers are no doubt telling him this.</li><li>Trump says no, a war against Iran would be “easily won.”</li><li>We list what could go wrong if Trump attacks.</li></ul>There’s a kerfuffle over President Trump’s supposed plan to launch a military attack on Iran any day now. Axios and other outlets have reported that Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine warned Trump that a <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-caine-vance-rubio" target='__blank'>military campaign against Iran would be risky</a>, with possible American deaths and perhaps a messy outcome. Trump pushed back, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5751562-general-caine-iran-military-action/" target='__blank'>insisting on social media</a> that this is “fake news” and that Caine says a war against Iran would be “easily won.”A war against Iran would be complicated, but this dispute is easy to parse. Of course Caine is warning Trump that there are many risks involved in an attack on Iran. And Trump is lying about an easy victory. The Pentagon has done detailed war planning on this scenario for decades. So have many think tanks and other research groups. The risks are obvious and well understood by anybody who has studied the problem.<img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Trump_Khameini_eda37c711772221482974.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Trump_Khameini_eda37c711772221482974.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Trump seems to be contemplating air attacks only—no US soldiers on the ground in Iran—as a means of accomplish goals he has kept vague. Maybe he wants Iran to completely abandon its nuclear weapons program. Maybe new intelligence shows that the attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities last June didn’t accomplish much. Maybe Trump wants to depose the ruling Islamic theocracy. Maybe he’s just drunk with power and thinks he can gain control of Iran the way he gained control of Venezuela in January.More from Rick Newman <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'>The Pinpoint Press</a><ul><li><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'></a> <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/the-weekly-wtf-drone-farce-gonzales-scandal-pete-hegseth" target='__blank'>The Weekly WTF: Dept. of Drone Farce</a> </li><li> <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/trump-state-of-the-union-2026-economic-analysis-midterm-strategy" target='__blank'>Windy speech shows Trump stuck in neutral</a> </li><li> <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/beneath-the-chaos-trump-is-losing" target='__blank'>Beneath the chaos, Trump is losing on tariffs</a> </li></ul>A US attack would target Iranian leadership and military targets. It wouldn’t be nearly as easy as the one-and-done mission that snatched Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3. That operation was a total surprise against a wrecked country with a ragtag military. Iran isn’t in great shape, but it’s a heavily armed and militant nation bristling with Russian weaponry. Trump has been telegraphing an attack for weeks, so there’s no element of surprise.Iran can’t beat the United States in an all-out war, but it can cause plenty of pain. Here’s a short list of what could go wrong:US casualties. The United States has 40,000 personnel at 13 bases in the Persian Gulf region, plus dozens of ships within range of Iranian missiles and attack boats. Iran couldn’t harm enough Americans to gain a military advantage, but how many American deaths would turn a US operation into a political fiasco for Trump?History shows that a single bloody attack can have profound consequences for a US president and his policies, including the <a href="https://www.marines.mil/News/Marines-TV/videoid/634642/dvpTag/Beirut/" target='__blank'>1983 attack on a Marine barracks in L</a>ebanon, the <a href="https://www.asomf.org/the-battle-of-mogadishu/" target='__blank'>1993 “Black Hawk Down” disaster in Somalia</a>, the <a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2671543/25-years-later-remembering-khobar-towers/" target='__blank'>1996 Khobar Towers bombing</a> in Saudi Arabia, and the <a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/p/bombing" target='__blank'>2000 attack on the USS Cole</a> in Yemen. There’s also the prospect of Iran capturing American pilots if they could shoot down their planes in or near Iran. That would be a PR boon for Iran and a catastrophe for Trump.Soaring oil prices. A US attack would probably spare Iranian oil facilities, but that doesn’t mean Iran would play by the same rules. The think tank CSIS recently outlined <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/if-trump-strikes-iran-mapping-oil-disruption-scenarios" target='__blank'>four scenarios that could disrupt Persian Gulf oil flows</a>, including Iranian attacks on pipelines, infrastructure and shipping routes, and possible US retaliation against Iran’s oil infrastructure if that happens. The world is less dependent on Middle East oil than it used to be, but any disruption to Middle East supply could easily send oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. Trump seems terrified of high oil and gasoline prices. Would he really risk that, even for a while?An open-ended conflict. The <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/ten-predictions-for-the-potential-us-strikes-on-iran/?" target='__blank'>Atlantic Council points out</a> that “the US military assets Trump has amassed can’t stay in place forever.” Those assets include two aircraft carrier battle groups, which are in high demand all around the world. If Trump expends missiles and bombs on Iran, those stockpiles will take time to rebuild. There might not be another war any time soon, but the Pentagon’s job is to plan for the worst, and the United States down not have unlimited war materiel.If the regime falls, what then? If Trump does order an attack that kills the 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the remnants of his regime are not just going to step aside and ask the United States who should replace him. It’s also not realistic that Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah of Iran, could waltz into power, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/02/24/reza-pahlavi-iran-trump-00793877?" target='__blank'>as some wish</a>. His father the shah was notoriously corrupt and Pahlavi hasn’t been in Iran since 1978. Ordinary Iranians might prefer him to the current militant regime, but ordinary Iranians, alas, aren’t likely to be the deciders.Trump’s ability to call the shots in Venezuela is an outlier in the history of US-backed regime change. What often happens is a bloody internal power struggle the United States can’t control, even if it deludes itself into thinking it can. A lack of US presence on the ground in Iran would only make an effort to install the next leader more futile.Trump is able to control Venezuela, more or less, because United States controls its oil, which fills the bank accounts of the country’s rulers. That formula wouldn’t apply to Iran. Venezuela is a marginal supplier to world markets and Trump can risk disruption of that supply without pushing prices up much. Iran is a bigger supplier, plus Iranian-backed terrorists spread throughout the region could threaten even more supply, whether their bosses control the country or not.There are probably many other risks Caine and his team are warning Trump about. That doesn’t mean Trump will listen to them. But he probably should. Just because you can win a war doesn’t mean you can survive it.<a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'>Subscribe to The Pinpoint Press </a><a href="https://www.thepinpointpress.com/" target='__blank'></a><img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor_2ac568861772220047526.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor_2ac568861772220047526.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" /><img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor Disclaimer (1)_a6a87e0f1772220064477.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor Disclaimer (1)_a6a87e0f1772220064477.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />

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These are the risks if Trump attacks Iran

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cr35Mw0c3TY" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ShapiroFeb2272026piece_4be12c671772213151638.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/cr35Mw0c3TY&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ShapiroFeb2272026piece_4be12c671772213151638.jpg&quot;}"></video>Wholesale inflation came in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/ppi-january-2026-.html" target='__blank'>hotter then expected</a> in January, delivering an early jolt to equity markets before investors ultimately faded the move. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month over month, above consensus expectations for a 0.3% increase and ahead of December’s 0.4% gain. On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI rose 2.9%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.8% for the month — sharply above expectations of 0.3% and higher than December’s 0.6% print. On a 12-month basis, core prices accelerated 3.6%, underscoring that pipeline inflation pressures remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.The initial market reaction was predictable. Equity futures extended losses immediately following the release, as investors recalibrated rate expectations and weighed the implications for the Fed’s summer easing timeline. Treasury yields ticked higher in early trading, reflecting concern that sticky wholesale inflation could push policymakers toward a more cautious stance. However, those losses were later retraced, suggesting that market participants may view the report as somewhat distorted by volatile components rather than the start of a renewed inflation surge.A <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm" target='__blank'>closer look</a> at the data helps explain both the initial concern and the subsequent recovery. The January increase was driven primarily by services, which rose 0.8% — the largest monthly gain since July 2025. Within services, margins for final demand trade services jumped 2.5%, and over 20% of the total increase in services was attributed to a 14.4% spike in professional and commercial equipment wholesaling margins. Trade services measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers, meaning this jump reflects widening spreads rather than underlying commodity costs. Transportation and warehousing services also increased 1.0%, while services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing were flat.In contrast, goods prices declined 0.3%, marking the largest drop since March 2025. Energy prices fell 2.7%, led by a 5.5% drop in gasoline, which accounted for nearly 80% of the decline in goods. Food prices fell 1.5%. However, core goods (excluding food and energy) rose 0.7%, pointing to underlying firmness in certain categories. Nonferrous metals rose, and certain advanced systems components saw double-digit increases, while apparel-related segments also showed signs of upward pressure.The divergence between falling headline goods and rising core goods is important. Energy relief masked firmness in underlying goods, while services — particularly margin-based categories — carried the bulk of the upside surprise. That composition likely contributed to the market’s eventual stabilization. Margin-driven trade services can be volatile month to month, and investors may view this as less indicative of persistent inflation than broad-based cost increases across goods and wages.From an industry perspective, the report had mixed implications. Energy-sensitive sectors benefited from falling gasoline and energy prices, while metals-related industries may face renewed cost pressure. Retailers and wholesalers could see margin compression if higher wholesale costs cannot be passed through, although the jump in trade margins suggests some pricing power remains intact. Software publishing prices fell 12.2%, which may ease some input cost pressures in technology supply chains, even as hardware-related components rose.Financials and rate-sensitive growth stocks were initially pressured, reflecting the hotter-than-expected core print. If wholesale inflation remains elevated, it could complicate the Fed’s ability to pivot aggressively toward rate cuts. Markets currently anticipate the central bank remaining on hold until summer, and today’s report does little to accelerate that timeline. However, the rebound in equities indicates that investors may believe the report overstates the persistence of inflation pressures.The key read-through now shifts to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Several PPI components feed directly into PCE calculations, particularly services and healthcare-related categories. The 0.8% core PPI print could lead economists to revise up near-term PCE estimates, especially if trade margins and transportation services feed through meaningfully. That said, the fact that goods prices fell and certain volatile categories drove the surprise may limit the upward adjustment. Analysts will refine PCE forecasts ahead of the March 13 release, and that report will likely carry more weight for Fed policy expectations.Looking ahead, there are several elements to watch in future PPI reports. First, the persistence of services inflation — particularly trade margins — will be critical. A one-month spike may be dismissed; a trend would be more problematic. Second, core goods inflation bears monitoring, especially in categories potentially impacted by tariffs. There was some evidence of tariff-related pressure in apparel and intermediate goods, though not yet broad-based. Third, energy volatility continues to mask underlying trends, and sustained commodity stabilization would help clarify the inflation picture.Finally, the broader macro backdrop matters. President Trump has argued inflation is under control, even as tariffs and trade policies introduce uncertainty. While today’s report showed pockets of pipeline pressure, it did not suggest an economy spiraling back into inflationary acceleration. The market’s recovery from early losses suggests investors are willing to give the data the benefit of the doubt — for now.In sum, January PPI was hotter than expected, driven by services and margin expansion, while goods prices declined due to falling energy. The initial selloff reflected rate sensitivity and policy uncertainty, but the rebound indicates that investors see this as potentially transitory rather than structural. The next critical test will be PCE, where the true policy implications will come into sharper focus.

Futures

Hot PPI Jolts Markets — Is Sticky Inflation About to Derail the Fed’s Rate-Cut Dreams?

The institutional money flow has definitively reversed. After five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling about $3.8 billion, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a two-day inflow spike of <a href="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-post-half-a-billion-inflows">more than $750 million</a>, with the largest single-day total in three weeks coming yesterday. This sudden surge marks a clear shift from the heavy redemptions that fueled doubts about demand just days ago.BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the primary driver, accounting for nearly 60% of the latest day's inflows. The fund's $297.4 million buying session underscores its role as the liquidity spine for ETF-driven exposure. The pattern is further validated by a drop in CME open interest, which suggests this is outright long exposure rather than basis trade activity.The immediate price impact has been decisive. The rebound from below $64,000 to near $70,000 aligns almost tick for tick with the shift in listed demand. This flow reversal from chronic outflow to sharp inflow is the key difference from previous selloffs, providing a durable bid that has already reset the market's immediate trajectory.<backtest-component code="BTCUSDT" id="strategy_001" range="3" market="UBAX"></backtest-component><img src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/aigc/hxcmp/images/compress-qwen_generated_1772211659652.jpg.png" style="max-width:100%;"/><h2>The Whale Signal: Accumulation at the Dip</h2>On-chain data reveals a powerful contrarian signal. The number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 100 BTC is approaching <a href="https://www.mexc.com/news/815065">20,000</a>, a historically bullish accumulation threshold. This surge in large holder addresses suggests sophisticated capital is quietly buying during the recent price dip, creating a potential floor for the market. <visualization data='{"components":[{"show_type":"jgyNewLowcode","config":{"type":"iwcapp/stockBackTestTool","version":"0.0.3","url":"//cdn.ainvest.com/frontResources/s/foiegras/stockBackTestTool/0.0.3/stockBackTestTool@0.0.3index.js"},"data":{"columns":[{"index_name":"strategy_basic_info","key":"strategy_basic_info","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_condition","key":"backtest_condition","type":"Object"},{"index_name":"backtest_result","key":"backtest_result","type":"STR"}],"datas":[{"strategy_basic_info":{"name":"Volume-Confirmed Breakout (Long Only)","description":"Go long when IBIT closes above its 20-day high and volume exceeds 150% of its 20-day average. Exit when price closes below the 20-day low, after 10 days, or on a 10% take-profit or 5% stop-loss."},"backtest_condition":{"object":{"display_name":"Object","type":"ticker","ticker":["IBIT"]},"open_signal":{"display_name":"Open Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"Close &gt; 20-day high AND Volume &gt; 1.5 × 20-day average volume"},"sell_signal":{"display_name":"Close Signal","type":"criteria","criteria":"Close &lt; 20-day low OR holding ≥ 10 days OR TP +10% OR SL −5%"},"risk_control":{"display_name":"Risk Control","parameters":{"take_profit":{"display_name":"Take-Profit","value":10,"unit":"%"},"stop_loss":{"display_name":"Stop-Loss","value":5,"unit":"%"},"max_holding_days":{"display_name":"Hold Days","value":10}}}},"backtest_result":"https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/784562/1800109709/80b7eac8-9cf4-4950-9402-18c7f585e429/ibit_vcb_backtest_visual_20240227_20260226.json"}]},"uuid":"1772211857976"}],"page":{"layout":{"layout_mode":"grid","layout_data":"[{\"uuid\": \"1772211857976\", \"show_type\": \"jgyNewLowcode\"}]"}}}'></visualization>The behavior is more than just holding; it's active accumulation. Santiment data shows a spike in <a href="https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-whale-activity-rises-amid-clarity-act-deadline-signaling-march-volatility">$100K+ transfers</a>, a pattern often preceding sharp market reversals. This movement indicates whales are absorbing supply, likely moving coins from exchanges into cold storage or repositioning long-term holdings. The timing aligns with the broader macro shift, as the recent price rebound followed a <a href="https://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-rebounds-to-68k-as-bitcoin-etf-inflows-surge-and-ibit-etf-drives-the-bid-200675764">risk-on shift after strong tech earnings</a>.Together, these flows create a dual bid. The institutional ETF inflow provides immediate, durable demand, while the whale accumulation offers a strategic, long-term floor. This combination of on-chain conviction and listed product demand is a stronger setup than previous rebounds, where retail leverage often drove the move. The path now hinges on whether this accumulation can be sustained through the upcoming regulatory uncertainty around the March 1 Clarity Act deadline.<h2>Catalysts and Risks: The Path to a Bottom</h2>The reversal faces a critical test from two primary risks. First, rising exchange reserves signal continued selling pressure from profit-taking and liquidity needs. More concerning is the <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:dc6072d1d094b:0-bitcoin-to-30k-analysts-debate-when-and-at-what-price-btc-will-bottom/">"supply in profit" metric falling to 2022 lows</a>, a condition that historically preceded deep bear market phases. This suggests a large pool of coins is sitting at a loss, creating a structural overhang that could drive further distribution if sentiment weakens.<visualization data='{"components":[{"show_type":"jgyStandardChartSdk","config":{"parameter":{"xAttribute":"Date","barAttribute":["Volume"],"lineAttribute":["Close"]},"name":"barLine","showDataZoom":true},"title_config":{"config":{"display":true},"data":{"h1":"IBIT Price &amp; Volume – YTD 2026"}},"data":{"type":"static-data","datas":[{"Date":"2026-01-02","Close":50.939998626708984,"Volume":65968800},{"Date":"2026-01-05","Close":53.459999084472656,"Volume":76547400},{"Date":"2026-01-06","Close":52.45000076293945,"Volume":54907400},{"Date":"2026-01-07","Close":51.540000915527344,"Volume":44367000},{"Date":"2026-01-08","Close":51.52000045776367,"Volume":42787300},{"Date":"2026-01-09","Close":51.15999984741211,"Volume":39688400},{"Date":"2026-01-12","Close":51.869998931884766,"Volume":40729100},{"Date":"2026-01-13","Close":53.56999969482422,"Volume":65696700},{"Date":"2026-01-14","Close":55.439998626708984,"Volume":85891200},{"Date":"2026-01-15","Close":54.0,"Volume":50521000},{"Date":"2026-01-16","Close":54.2400016784668,"Volume":43292300},{"Date":"2026-01-20","Close":50.7599983215332,"Volume":76481100},{"Date":"2026-01-21","Close":51.11000061035156,"Volume":70127800},{"Date":"2026-01-22","Close":50.66999816894531,"Volume":49100900},{"Date":"2026-01-23","Close":50.70000076293945,"Volume":48026600},{"Date":"2026-01-26","Close":49.650001525878906,"Volume":43973100},{"Date":"2026-01-27","Close":50.630001068115234,"Volume":51840700},{"Date":"2026-01-28","Close":50.5099983215332,"Volume":42931400},{"Date":"2026-01-29","Close":47.599998474121094,"Volume":113944200},{"Date":"2026-01-30","Close":47.4900016784668,"Volume":72346100},{"Date":"2026-02-02","Close":44.220001220703125,"Volume":106528100},{"Date":"2026-02-03","Close":43.29999923706055,"Volume":125821800},{"Date":"2026-02-04","Close":41.56999969482422,"Volume":110932700},{"Date":"2026-02-05","Close":36.099998474121094,"Volume":284371500},{"Date":"2026-02-06","Close":39.68000030517578,"Volume":163384200},{"Date":"2026-02-09","Close":40.11000061035156,"Volume":77526100},{"Date":"2026-02-10","Close":38.970001220703125,"Volume":61505400},{"Date":"2026-02-11","Close":38.290000915527344,"Volume":71103800},{"Date":"2026-02-12","Close":37.04999923706055,"Volume":62511900},{"Date":"2026-02-13","Close":38.970001220703125,"Volume":65553100},{"Date":"2026-02-17","Close":38.38999938964844,"Volume":54882700},{"Date":"2026-02-18","Close":37.540000915527344,"Volume":50091300},{"Date":"2026-02-19","Close":38.06999969482422,"Volume":44587900},{"Date":"2026-02-20","Close":38.41999816894531,"Volume":62202100},{"Date":"2026-02-23","Close":36.54999923706055,"Volume":61935300},{"Date":"2026-02-24","Close":36.529998779296875,"Volume":47064700},{"Date":"2026-02-25","Close":39.22999954223633,"Volume":79921100},{"Date":"2026-02-26","Close":38.2599983215332,"Volume":51781500},{"Date":"2026-02-27","Close":37.14500045776367,"Volume":24806959}]},"uuid":1772211740419.9062}],"page":{"layout":{"layout_mode":"grid","layout_data":"[{"uuid": 1772211740419.9062, "show_type": "jgyStandardChartSdk"}]"}}}'></visualization>Second, the flow dynamics must be confirmed. While ETF inflows are strong, a sustained decline in <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/27/u-s-spot-bitcoin-etfs-set-for-biggest-week-in-6-after-adding-usd1-1-billion-in-three-days">CME open interest</a> is needed to prove this is genuine long accumulation, not just futures arbitrage. The recent drop supports the bullish thesis, but any stabilization or rise in futures contracts would undermine the narrative of durable institutional demand.Finally, regulatory uncertainty looms. The <a href="https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-whale-activity-rises-amid-clarity-act-deadline-signaling-march-volatility">March 1 Clarity Act deadline</a> introduces a known catalyst for volatility. Combined with the surge in whale activity, this creates a high-risk environment for early March. The market's ability to hold above key support levels, like the long-term holder cost basis, will determine whether this is a bottoming process or a pause before a deeper correction.

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Bitcoin's Flow Reversal: ETF Inflows vs. Whale Accumulation

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Stocks Slide Early as AI Reshapes Corporate Strategy

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cr35Mw0c3TY" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ShapiroFeb2272026piece_bed5efea1772203169814.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/cr35Mw0c3TY&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ShapiroFeb2272026piece_bed5efea1772203169814.jpg&quot;}"></video>Block <a href="https://s29.q4cdn.com/628966176/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/Q4-2025-Shareholder-Letter_Block.pdf" target='__blank'>delivered a quarter</a> that, on the surface, looked solid. But the market isn’t just reacting to earnings — it’s reacting to a structural shift. Shares surged more than 20% in the after-hours session after the company paired a beat-and-raise quarter with a dramatic announcement: it will cut more than 40% of its workforce, shrinking from over 10,000 employees to just under 6,000. CEO Jack Dorsey framed the move explicitly around artificial intelligence, arguing that “intelligence tools” now allow significantly smaller teams to operate more effectively. In a market already rattled by growing anxiety over AI’s impact on white-collar jobs — amplified earlier in the week by the Citrini Research note — this was not just a company-specific headline. It was a macro signal.From a <a href="https://www.investors.com/news/technology/ai-jobs-block-cuts-40-percent-sp-500-xyz-stock/" target='__blank'>pure results</a> standpoint, Block’s Q4 numbers were strong. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.65, in line with consensus, on revenue of $6.25 billion versus estimates around $6.22 billion. More importantly, gross profit — the company’s preferred performance metric — grew 24% year over year to $2.87 billion, comfortably ahead of expectations. Adjusted operating income rose 46% year over year to $588 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached $930 million. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 38% year over year, reflecting meaningful operating leverage.Cash App was the standout. Gross profit in the segment surged 33% year over year, well ahead of Street expectations closer to the mid-20% range. Monthly transacting actives reached 59 million, up sequentially by roughly 1 million users, while primary banking actives climbed 22% year over year to 9.3 million. Consumer lending momentum was particularly strong, with origination volume up 69% year over year and Cash App Borrow up more than 200%. Management emphasized that primary banking users generate nearly 10x the gross profit of peer-to-peer only actives, reinforcing the strategy of deepening engagement over simply growing top-line users.On the Square side, gross payment volume (GPV) grew 10% year over year, roughly in line with expectations, while gross profit growth of about 7% was modestly light versus consensus. However, early 2026 trends are improving, with quarter-to-date GPV growth accelerating to over 12% year over year. International GPV growth exceeded 20%, and food &amp; beverage verticals showed particular strength. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank both highlighted improving attach rates and better pricing flexibility, suggesting that Block is successfully expanding its total addressable market after a period of slower growth between 2022 and 2024.Margins were another positive. Adjusted operating income margins expanded to roughly 20% in Q4, and management is now guiding to 26% margins in 2026 — a dramatic step-up. For the full year, Block now expects $12.2 billion in gross profit in 2026, representing 18% year-over-year growth, alongside $3.2 billion in adjusted operating income, up 54% year over year. Adjusted diluted EPS is projected at $3.66, also up 54%. First-quarter guidance calls for $2.8 billion in gross profit (22% growth) and $600 million in adjusted operating income.But those numbers are almost secondary to the restructuring. The company expects to incur $450 million to $500 million in restructuring charges, primarily in Q1. Dorsey acknowledged that Block “over-hired during COVID,” building two parallel organizations for Square and Cash App that were later consolidated. More importantly, he framed the cuts as forward-looking, not defensive. The goal, he said, is to target over $2 million in gross profit per employee — roughly 4x pre-COVID efficiency levels. He explicitly stated that smaller teams using AI tools can “do more and do it better” and predicted that most companies will reach similar conclusions within the next year.That language matters. This is not a typical cost-cutting program during a downturn. Block is essentially betting that AI-powered automation can sustain 18% gross profit growth while reducing headcount by 40%. Bank of America summarized the thesis succinctly: grow gross profit high-teens while dramatically cutting costs, powered by AI. Investors appear willing to give management the benefit of the doubt, with shares rallying sharply and multiple analysts upgrading the stock or raising price targets.However, the broader implications are significant. The Citrini Research note earlier in the week triggered concerns that AI could accelerate displacement in white-collar industries, particularly in software and fintech. Block’s move gives that narrative credibility. This is one of the first major public companies to explicitly tie a workforce reduction of this scale to AI efficiency gains. If other companies with depressed stock prices see the market reward this move, the incentive to follow suit grows.For software companies, the risk is twofold. First, if headcounts shrink meaningfully across corporate America, “seat-based” pricing models could face pressure. Second, if AI allows companies to consolidate tools or reduce layers of middle management, spending growth could slow even in an otherwise stable macro environment. The recent bounce in software stocks could therefore face renewed scrutiny as investors reassess demand durability in a world of AI-driven efficiency.To be clear, Block’s fundamentals are not deteriorating. Gross profit growth is accelerating, Cash App engagement is improving, and margin expansion is material. Risk remains in lending, with management acknowledging higher portfolio losses in December and January, but cohorts are reportedly trending below targets more recently. Execution risk around such a large workforce reduction is real, but management argues smaller, “functionalized” teams will move faster.The bottom line: Block delivered a strong quarter and raised guidance. But the stock’s explosive reaction reflects something larger. By cutting 40% of its workforce and explicitly crediting AI tools for enabling that move, Block has thrown fuel on an already smoldering debate about automation, employment, and the future structure of corporate America. Markets will be watching closely to see who follows — and what that means for the broader software and fintech landscape.

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