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Help me understand the rationale of market bounce on 3/31/2025

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Is Trump making China's stock market great again?

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How can Nebius' low-price strategy in Europe challenge CoreWeave's AI supremacy in North America?

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_6d38aa7c1770991345562.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_6d38aa7c1770991345562.jpg&quot;}"></video>The highly anticipated <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm" target='__blank'>January CPI report</a> delivered a modest upside surprise on headline inflation and largely met expectations on core, helping steady markets after weeks of volatility. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the 0.3% consensus estimate, while year-over-year inflation cooled to 2.4%, also below expectations of 2.5% and down from 2.7% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month in line with estimates, with the year-over-year rate holding at 2.5%, exactly matching consensus.The cooler-than-expected headline reading initially provided a lift to equity futures, though the overall market response has been muted. After slipping in pre-market trading, futures stabilized as investors digested the details. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.07% before settling near that level, reflecting a modest easing in rate pressures rather than a wholesale repricing. The <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target='__blank'>CME FedWatch</a> tool now shows an 82% probability of a June rate cut, followed by a 79% probability of a September cut. While some headlines have suggested traders are pricing in a 50% chance of a third rate cut this year, Fed funds futures do not reflect a 50% probability until the January 2027 meeting, indicating that expectations remain for a gradual, not aggressive, easing cycle.A closer look at the report reveals that the headline miss was largely driven by energy. The energy index declined 1.5% in January, with gasoline down 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis and down 7.5% year-over-year. This deflationary impulse continues to act as a counterweight to broader price pressures. Electricity prices fell 0.1% month-over-month but remain up 6.3% year-over-year, while natural gas rose 1.0% in January and is up nearly 10% over the past year. In short, commodity energy is soft, but energy services remain elevated.Food prices rose 0.2% month-over-month, matching expectations. Food at home increased 0.2%, while food away from home rose 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, food inflation stands at 2.9%, with food away from home still running hot at 4.0%. Grocery categories showed mixed movement, with cereals and bakery products up 1.2% for the month and dairy rising 0.8%, while other food at home declined 0.3%. There is little evidence here of tariff-driven price acceleration in core grocery categories, though certain processed food components remain firm.Core inflation, the Federal Reserve’s primary focus, rose 0.3% month-over-month. Shelter increased 0.2%, with both rent and owners’ equivalent rent up 0.2% for the month. On a year-over-year basis, shelter is running at 3.0%, with OER at 3.3%. The steady deceleration in shelter from pandemic-era peaks continues, though it remains the single largest contributor to monthly core inflation.Outside of shelter, the picture was mixed. Airline fares jumped 6.5% month-over-month, contributing to volatility in transportation services, which rose 1.3%. Medical care services increased 0.3% for the month, with hospital services up 0.9%, underscoring ongoing stickiness in healthcare costs. Personal care and recreation also saw gains, while communication prices rose 0.5%. These services categories collectively keep services-less-energy inflation elevated, which rose 0.5% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year.On the goods side, there was little sign of tariff-driven inflation reaccelerating. Core commodities rose 0.3% month-over-month and are up just 1.1% year-over-year. Used cars and trucks declined 1.8% in January and are down 2.0% year-over-year, while new vehicles rose only 0.1% for the month and 0.4% annually. Apparel increased 0.3% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. If tariffs were exerting broad pressure on goods prices, it is not yet evident in this report. Goods inflation remains relatively contained and far from the spikes seen in prior cycles.Real earnings for all private workers rose 0.5% in January after declines in December, suggesting that wage growth continues to outpace inflation at the margin. This dynamic supports consumer purchasing power and may help explain why markets are not reacting more aggressively to a modest cooling in headline inflation.In aggregate, the report supports a narrative of gradual disinflation rather than renewed price acceleration. Headline inflation is cooling, core remains stable but not deteriorating, shelter is trending lower, and goods inflation is subdued. The primary area of stickiness remains services, particularly medical and certain transportation components, though not at levels that would alarm policymakers.For markets, the key takeaway is that this report keeps the June rate cut firmly in play without dramatically pulling forward expectations. The modest decline in the 10-year yield and the stabilization in equities reflect that this was a “good enough” report rather than a game-changing one. With inflation drifting lower but not collapsing, the Federal Reserve retains flexibility. Investors now turn their attention to whether upcoming data confirm this steady glide path—or challenge it.

us_middle_importance

Stock

Futures

Bond

Inflation Cools More Than Expected — But Is the Fed’s June Rate Cut Now a Lock?

<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_c2ab5e471770989089020.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/X-Ew57Gh19I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/CandPBitcoin60K_c2ab5e471770989089020.jpg&quot;}"></video>Coinbase delivered a volatile <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/12/coinbase-misses-q4-estimates-as-transaction-revenue-falls-below-usd1-billion" target='__blank'>fourth quarter</a> that underscored just how tightly its near-term performance remains tethered to crypto prices. The company reported Q4 revenue of $1.78 billion, below the $1.83 billion consensus estimate, while adjusted EPS of $0.66 missed expectations of $0.86. On a GAAP basis, Coinbase swung to a net loss of $667 million, or -$2.49 per share, a sharp reversal from profitability a year ago. Shares initially fell to $134, marking a two-year low, before rebounding roughly 11% to around $148, suggesting some degree of near-term seller exhaustion following a steep year-to-date decline of roughly 40%.From a top-line perspective, the primary weakness came from transaction revenue, which totaled $983 million, down 6% sequentially from $1.046 billion in Q3 and down sharply from $1.556 billion in the year-ago quarter. Transaction revenue also fell short of Street expectations near $1.02 billion. The decline reflects the reality of the crypto backdrop: Bitcoin fell about 23% in Q4 and is down roughly 25% year-to-date, dragging down retail participation and overall trading volumes. Coinbase noted that through February 10, it has generated about $420 million in transaction revenue in Q1, suggesting continued near-term pressure.Subscription and services revenue, the company’s key diversification lever, came in at $727 million, down 3% sequentially but up from $641 million a year ago. This segment includes stablecoin revenue, staking, custody, and other recurring services. Management guided to Q1 subscription and services revenue in a range of $550 million to $630 million, reflecting lower crypto prices, lower interest rates, and reduced staking rewards. While this segment has grown meaningfully over the past several years, the sequential decline highlights that it is not immune to crypto volatility.Profitability metrics were mixed. Adjusted EBITDA of $566 million exceeded some analyst estimates but fell below the consensus of roughly $657 million. Operating expenses totaled about $1.5 billion, up 9% quarter-over-quarter, driven in part by acquisitions such as Deribit and Echo, as well as higher USDC rewards. On an adjusted basis, net income was $178 million, but GAAP results were heavily distorted by non-cash charges, including a $718 million unrealized loss on Coinbase’s crypto investment portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments, including its stake in Circle. Excluding these marks, underlying profitability was less severe, though still below expectations.The crypto environment was the central driver of results. Management acknowledged that crypto market cap declined 11% sequentially in Q4, and trading activity cooled accordingly. CEO Brian Armstrong reiterated that “crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good or as bad as it seems,” framing the quarter as a function of macro and asset price volatility rather than structural deterioration. CFO Alesia Haas added that even amid volatility, “those who are in the market, they’re buying the dip,” signaling some stabilization in active user engagement.Strategically, Coinbase continues to push its “Everything Exchange” vision. Armstrong highlighted that global trading volume and market share doubled year-over-year and that Coinbase now stores 12% of all crypto globally, more than the next four competitors combined. The company launched the Everything Exchange in Q4 and is expanding into equities, commodities, and prediction markets. Management also emphasized Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2 network, which reached new transaction highs, and ongoing efforts to scale stablecoin use cases, particularly USDC, in commerce and payments.Analyst reaction was mixed but not uniformly negative. Canaccord maintained a Buy rating, though it lowered its price target to $300 from $400, citing near-term estimate cuts but confidence in Coinbase’s breadth, depth, and medium-term positioning. The firm sees Deribit as a strategic asset and believes Coinbase is positioned to gain share internationally. Deutsche Bank also kept a Buy rating, trimming its price target to $250 from $331 and describing results as largely in line with its own expectations, while reiterating support for the Everything Exchange vision.In contrast, Piper Sandler maintained a Neutral rating and slashed its price target to $150 from $270, citing lower Q1 guidance and downward revisions to 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates. Piper highlighted that while adjusted EBITDA beat its internal forecast, transaction and subscription revenue trends, combined with token price weakness and multiple compression across the sector, warrant a more cautious stance.On capital allocation, Coinbase ended the year with $11.3 billion in cash and total available resources of $14.1 billion. The company repurchased $1.7 billion of stock in 2025, fully offsetting dilution from stock-based compensation, and the board authorized an additional $2 billion in buybacks. Management also reiterated its commitment to continuing Bitcoin purchases and investing in product development.The stock’s sharp bounce off $134 to around $148 may reflect a combination of technical oversold conditions and investor willingness to look through near-term crypto weakness. However, the revenue miss and Q1 guide suggest that fundamentals will remain closely tied to asset prices and trading volumes. The key debate for investors remains whether diversification through subscription revenue, derivatives, Base, and prediction markets can meaningfully reduce cyclicality—or whether Coinbase will continue to trade as a high-beta proxy on Bitcoin and broader crypto sentiment.

Cryptocurrency

NorthAmerica

Bitcoin

BITCOIN

USDC

LAYER

TOKEN

Coinbase Global

Coinbase Hits 2-Year Low After Miss — Then Rips 11% as Bulls Attempt to Call Crypto Bottom

The market sell-off has returned as the narrative around AI disruption expands beyond SaaS and begins to challenge finance, insurance, wealth management, logistics, and other talent-intensive industries. The fear is no longer limited to software. It is evolving into a broader concern that AI could reshuffle entire sectors. While we believe much of this move is driven by headlines rather than structural deterioration, price action is flashing caution. Investors should respond to signals instead of blindly rushing to buy the dip. When volatility accelerates, discipline matters more than conviction. From technical positioning to fundamental clarity, here are three critical factors to monitor before making the next move.Technical analysis comes first. The AI shuffle has hit software stocks hardest, making the Nasdaq 100 the primary casualty. Thursday&#39;s decline pushed the tech-focused index into a more vulnerable position. It is now testing the February 5 low. If that support level is decisively broken, selling pressure could intensify as panic overtakes rational positioning. The recent rebound attempt has already formed a short-term lower-high pattern, and if a lower low follows, downside risk increases meaningfully. Momentum indicators reinforce the warning. The MA(3), MA(7), and MA(10) have all turned downward, signaling deteriorating short-term structure. If these three technical conditions align with a confirmed support break, pessimism could become the dominant headwind in the near term.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;482d8d3b-a643-407f-b2dc-922d11e267ba&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/835d32fa-5e17-4dc5-9df2-c95ff8e042d4_QQQ_31ddd9611770968172038.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/835d32fa-5e17-4dc5-9df2-c95ff8e042d4_QQQ_31ddd9611770968172038.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />The S&amp;P 500 has also sharply declined, though its structure remains relatively more stable because it reflects the broader economy rather than just technology. The index is still trading above its key support level, yet caution is warranted as its short-term moving averages have also turned lower. If the tech sector experiences further weakness, it will be difficult for the S&amp;P 500 to stand firm alone. This is why the narrative around AI challenging traditional industries has become so central. The technical picture is not broken, but it is fragile, and investors must respect that balance.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;ae237a1f-a3a1-4e63-9dca-bc8c2f9283b2&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/bb7a2831-9325-4674-b911-a4e314e93d69_spx_a750d5641770968225645.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/bb7a2831-9325-4674-b911-a4e314e93d69_spx_a750d5641770968225645.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Fundamentally, this episode appears to be driven more by reaction than by evidence. Investors are responding to newly unveiled AI tools without clarity on how they will reshape long-term earnings models. The market has pressed a broad sell button before understanding the depth of the impact. For example, AI unicorn Anthropic introduced a legal plug-in for its agentic AI Claude Cowork, directly challenging overpriced legal software players such as Harvey or Legora. However, nearly every category of software stock sold off in response. In reality, such tools are more likely to enhance productivity within the legal sector rather than eliminate established platforms overnight. The real vulnerability lies with companies that have failed to innovate, not with those actively integrating AI into their ecosystems.Claude&#39;s strategic direction also differs from the paths taken by Gemini and ChatGPT. Google and OpenAI emphasize partnerships with software companies, such as Shopify integrating AI into e-commerce workflows. This model creates synergy by combining sector-specific data with advanced AI capabilities. It becomes a mutually reinforcing relationship rather than a zero-sum replacement. A standalone AI model operating without integration risks inaccuracies or regulatory challenges, particularly in enterprise environments where data security and compliance are critical. Businesses are unlikely to open a Pandora&#39;s box when stability and control remain priorities.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;e005249a-1db5-419b-8e7d-e502cdbc0c54&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/04012e52-d732-4dce-9b50-2904667a8be7_OpenAI-Shopify-ChatGPT-TikTok-Sam-Altman_3639403b1770968299654.jpg&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/04012e52-d732-4dce-9b50-2904667a8be7_OpenAI-Shopify-ChatGPT-TikTok-Sam-Altman_3639403b1770968299654.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />It is also important to recognize that Claude represents a pure play in advanced AI research rather than a direct competitor across every industry. Emerging startups such as Insurify, Altruist, or Algorhythm may unveil sector-specific AI platforms and spark temporary anxiety, but many lack scale, resources, and credibility. Traditional firms possess established infrastructure and customer trust, enabling them to embed AI more effectively. As long as major AI leaders pursue structured integration rather than reckless disruption, the broader concern resembles panic selling rather than a fundamental collapse. The world continues to function in an orderly manner, and technology adoption typically evolves through collaboration rather than destruction.The recent panic also highlights liquidity dynamics. Gold and silver declined alongside equities as volatility intensified. This behavior suggests a liquidity squeeze rather than a shift in long-term fundamentals. When markets experience stress, leveraged positions across asset classes are often forced to unwind simultaneously. Commodities have been crowded trades with substantial speculative exposure, so deleveraging pressure likely contributed to the sell-off. Over time, gold&#39;s long-term logic tied to monetary easing and dollar devaluation remains intact. However, if price swings appear disconnected from fundamental drivers, liquidity rather than macro outlook is usually the culprit. Stabilization in gold could therefore signal improving conditions beneath the surface.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;2d363fe7-656f-4842-a4dd-8343cfc03517&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/daba72bf-eddf-479d-935b-35ba53a52a6f_GLD_b86c0ebc1770968416619.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/daba72bf-eddf-479d-935b-35ba53a52a6f_GLD_b86c0ebc1770968416619.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />To conclude, the current environment demands measured analysis rather than following headlines. Technical indicators warn of vulnerability, particularly in tech-focused indices, and investors must watch support levels and pattern confirmation closely. Fundamentally, much of the disruption narrative appears overstated, driven by headlines instead of structural transformation. AI innovation will continue, but integration and partnership models remain the dominant path forward. Meanwhile, liquidity pressures have amplified volatility across gold and equities, adding to short-term uncertainty. By observing these signals carefully instead of reacting impulsively, investors can distinguish between genuine structural change and temporary noise, positioning themselves for clarity once the dust settles.

Volatility Metrics

RSI/MACD Metrics

crypto

Indicators & Oscillators

Analysis

Technical Analysis

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Artificial Intelligence

MAG7 index

Technical Signals Turn Cautious After Overreaction to AI Disruption, Here Are 3 Key Indicators to Watch Now

——The most crowded trade on Wall Street isn&#39;t Nvidia, it&#39;s fear—when a former karaoke company with a mere $6 million market cap clears its throat, a hundred-billion-dollar logistics giant is brought to its knees.Wall Street witnessed a market anomaly on Thursday that defies traditional financial modeling. A micro-cap company, previously known for selling karaoke machines and holding a market value of just $6 million, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-12/logistics-stocks-plunge-as-latest-victim-in-ai-disruption-trade?embedded-checkout=true" target='__blank'> triggered a massive selloff in the multi-billion dollar logistics sector.</a> The catalyst was a press release from Algorhythm Holdings claiming its new AI platform could exponentially scale freight operations, sending industry titans like C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. and RXO Inc. into a tailspin. While the fear of artificial intelligence disrupting legacy industries is valid, the mathematical magnitude of Thursday’s crash suggests the market has entered a phase of &quot;Category 5&quot; paranoia. Investors are no longer trading on earnings or fundamentals; they are trading on a visceral fear of obsolescence.<h2>The Karaoke Pivot That Shook the Supply Chain</h2> <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/trucking-and-logistics-stocks-tumble-on-release-of-ai-freight-scaling-tool.html" target='__blank'>The epicenter of Thursday&#39;s volatility was Algorhythm Holdings,</a> a company that rebranded in 2024 to pivot from karaoke machines to AI logistics after U.S. tariffs impacted its legacy business. On Thursday, the company announced that its &quot;SemiCab&quot; platform allowed customers to scale freight volumes by 300% to 400% without a corresponding increase in operational headcount. The market reaction was immediate and violent, characterized by a distinct &quot;David versus Goliath&quot; dynamic. <ul><li>The Disrupter: Algorhythm shares soared 30%, having jumped as much as 82% earlier in the session. </li><li>The Incumbents: C.H. Robinson tumbled 15% (down 24% at the lows), Landstar System fell 16%, and RXO dropped 20.5%. </li><li>The Sector: The Russell 3000 Trucking Index slid 6.6%, marking the sector&#39;s worst drop since the trade-war meltdown of April. </li></ul>The narrative driving the selloff is that open-source automation agents and AI platforms will disintermediate traditional truck brokers, who rely on human capital to match freight with carriers. However, the disparity in valuation—Algorhythm reported less than $2 million in sales last quarter—versus the billions in market cap wiped off established players suggests a disconnect. As Citigroup analyst Ariel Rosa noted, while the probability of industry disruption is high, skepticism remains that &quot;this particular company is gonna be the one to disrupt the industry.&quot; <h2>The &quot;AI Scare Trade&quot; Contagion</h2>Thursday’s logistics rout is not an isolated event; it is the latest chapter in a rolling &quot;AI Scare Trade&quot; that has decimated specific service sectors over the last two weeks. Investors are systematically identifying industries with high headcount-to-revenue ratios and aggressive manual back-office functions, then liquidating positions at the first sign of AI competency. As illustrated in the timeline above, the contagion has moved with clinical precision:<ul><li>Software &amp; SaaS (Jan 29): Fears that AI can write code better than humans triggered a selloff in companies like Monday.com.</li><li>Wealth Management (Feb 10): Brokerages and advisory firms fell as AI agents demonstrated capabilities in financial planning.</li><li>Real Estate Services (Feb 11): Commercial real estate firms like CBRE faced their worst drops since 2020 amid fears that AI-driven headcount reductions would permanently slash demand for office space.</li><li>Logistics (Feb 12): The freight brokerage model came under fire.</li></ul>This rotation signals a sea change in market sentiment. The enthusiasm that drove the Nasdaq’s gains in previous years has been replaced by a &quot;sell first, ask questions later&quot; mentality. According to Morningstar strategist David Sekera, the primary question on Wall Street has become, &quot;Who or what segment is going to be targeted by the market next?&quot; <img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;959b27dc-4006-4682-8958-eb8d4fde8da1&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/72f5ce35-4c84-46cf-897d-6b6ebbd7c9e2_8-Sigma Crash Did a Karaoke App Just Wreak Havoc on Logistics Stocks_9eab96931770951636426.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/72f5ce35-4c84-46cf-897d-6b6ebbd7c9e2_8-Sigma Crash Did a Karaoke App Just Wreak Havoc on Logistics Stocks_9eab96931770951636426.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" /><h2></h2><h2>Visualizing the &quot;Impossible&quot;: An 8-Sigma Event</h2>To understand the severity of this panic, one must look at the mathematical absurdity of the price action. In financial statistics, standard deviation (σ) measures the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A 3-sigma event is rare; an 8-sigma event is, theoretically, statistically impossible in a normal distribution.According to traders at Goldman Sachs, the collapse in C.H. Robinson represented an 8-standard deviation (8σ) move. <img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;a573d116-d534-472a-abd2-d9a0c524c48a&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/485b2331-0e0b-417f-b9bd-6a26e2c9f03e_8-Sigma Crash Did a Karaoke App Just Wreak Havoc on Logistics Stocks-1_d15c6dac1770951622105.png&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/485b2331-0e0b-417f-b9bd-6a26e2c9f03e_8-Sigma Crash Did a Karaoke App Just Wreak Havoc on Logistics Stocks-1_d15c6dac1770951622105.png" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />The chart above visualizes this anomaly. In a normal market environment, 99.7% of all price data points fall within three standard deviations (the pink zone). The crash experienced by logistics stocks on Thursday falls so far to the left of the curve—at negative 8σ—that it suggests a complete breakdown of efficient market pricing.This extreme volatility was not limited to a single stock. Goldman Sachs reported that over 40 constituents of the S&amp;P 500 experienced price moves exceeding 3 standard deviations on the same day, a level of volatility described by traders as &quot;the highest in memory.&quot; This indicates that the market is currently &quot;extremely fragile,&quot; with liquidity evaporating as buyers refuse to step in front of the AI steamroller.The breadth of the selloff confirms that this is a macro-level liquidation rather than a company-specific adjustment. Even sectors loosely related to the &quot;old economy,&quot; such as drug distributors McKesson and Cardinal Health, were dragged down, highlighting that the panic is indiscriminate. <h2>The Bottom Line</h2>The &quot;AI Scare Trade&quot; has evolved from a theoretical debate into a tangible capital rotation. While the threat AI poses to &quot;middleman&quot; industries is real, the market&#39;s reaction to Algorhythm—a company with a history of karaoke machines and net losses—suggests that fear has overtaken fundamentals. For investors, the current environment requires a bifurcated strategy. The sheer velocity of these selloffs, evidenced by the 8-sigma moves, makes &quot;catching a falling knife&quot; dangerous in the short term. However, history suggests that knee-jerk reactions to technological shifts often create mispricing. As noted by Benchmark analyst Christopher Kuhn, it is unlikely that major corporations will switch their entire logistics infrastructure to a new software provider overnight without utilizing major brokers. The prudent move is to remain wary of asset-heavy service sectors in the immediate term while recognizing that the &quot;old economy&quot; will not disappear in a week. If the fear of AI displacement keeps you up at night, the hedge is not to sell logistics stocks at the bottom, but to balance the portfolio with the &quot;picks and shovels&quot; of this revolution—semiconductors and energy—which remain the only clear beneficiaries of the AI boom.

Consumer Electronics

Algorhythm Holdings

Landstar System

8-Sigma Crash: Did a Karaoke App Just Wreak Havoc on Logistics Stocks?

As the fourth-quarter earnings season winds down, better-than-expected results have failed to push equities to fresh highs. Instead, the increasingly advanced capabilities of AI are posing mounting threats to traditional software and service industries. Whenever a startup rolls out an AI tool targeting a specific sector — or an established company delivers slightly softer guidance — investors respond with ruthless selling. Even seemingly unrelated precious metals like gold and silver have become collateral damage.Just ahead of Friday&#39;s CPI release, U.S. stocks notched a third straight day of losses. The S&amp;P 500 fell nearly 1.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 2%, marking the fifth time in the past 10 trading days that it has declined at least 1% in a single session. Spot gold slid more than 3%, once again falling below the $5,000-per-ounce threshold, while silver plunged over 11%. So what really happened?<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;f1caf955-6502-4e14-a76d-4761ec47ac58&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/552738fd-378d-47c8-bebf-cedc3e18deae_QQQ_05f182331770942688294.jpg&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/552738fd-378d-47c8-bebf-cedc3e18deae_QQQ_05f182331770942688294.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />There was no major macroeconomic catalyst. Instead, the move looks like a release of pent-up anxiety as AI continues to pressure software, hardware, and service industries. Last week, Anthropic launched a legal automation tool on its Claude Cowork platform capable of reviewing contracts, drafting briefs, and generating automated responses. Meanwhile, ByteDance&#39;s Seedance 2.0 video-generation model sparked widespread debate online for its realism and rapid content production. Traditional software names are now facing the risk of a massive reshuffle in the AI era.The software sector then sank further. Netflix and Palantir Technologies fell nearly 5%, while Shopify and Unity Software dropped more than 7%. AppLovin tumbled over 12%. Although these companies recently posted earnings that beat expectations, most offered slightly softer guidance, intensifying concerns that AI could erode the industry&#39;s long-term growth trajectory.The pressure extends well beyond software. A wide range of traditional industries is now under strain. Online insurance marketplace Insurify introduced an AI-powered tool this week that compares auto insurance rates using vehicle details, credit history, driving records, and other inputs. Financial software firm Altruist unveiled a new tax-planning service within its AI platform, Hazel, capable of instantly analyzing clients&#39; 1040 forms, pay stubs, statements, meeting notes, emails, and custodial data to generate fully personalized tax strategies within minutes.What began in software has now rippled into private credit firms, insurers, wealth managers, real estate services, logistics companies, and more. Jobs once viewed as secure &quot;career moats&quot; are increasingly seen as vulnerable to AI-driven disruption.&quot;The glaring theme underneath the surface — not just for tech, but across every corner of the market — is an aggressive &#39;shoot first, ask questions later&#39; reaction to any AI headline,&quot; Jefferies trader Jeffrey Favuzza wrote in a client note Thursday.Even hardware companies are feeling margin pressure from AI. Apple Inc. plunged 5%, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2025. Cisco Systems sank 12% after earnings, warning of weaker gross margins ahead. As the AI boom accelerates, soaring demand for computing power has pushed memory chip prices sharply higher, giving companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology greater pricing power.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;64738e2d-b7e2-431f-989c-1e0af91e5bf0&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ddcc10c1-2b63-4cfa-9cbf-10ba12904d82_aapl_f33cf7861770942746712.jpg&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/ddcc10c1-2b63-4cfa-9cbf-10ba12904d82_aapl_f33cf7861770942746712.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />Apple has had to absorb LPDDR memory price increases of 80% or more for the iPhone, pressuring profitability. Hardware firms with less pricing leverage are under even greater strain. Meanwhile, the memory chip supercycle shows no sign of cooling, with much of this year&#39;s capacity already sold out, adding to near-term margin headwinds.Notably, metals such as gold and silver were also caught in the crossfire. Analysts suggest that AI-driven risk aversion sparked the initial move, while algorithmic trading amplified the decline. Michael Ball of Bloomberg said the AI-driven risk-off tone in equities spilled into metals, with apparent algorithmic selling accelerating the drop. The sharp air-pocket decline resembled systematic strategy selling, as CTA models triggered momentum-driven de-risking once key technical levels were breached.Margin calls likely compounded the move. Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA, said some investors were forced to liquidate commodity positions to raise liquidity. &quot;It all happened so quickly and feels like a risk-out move,&quot; she said, noting that in periods of extreme stress, even safe-haven assets like gold can be sold to meet liquidity needs.Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com argued that the sharp drop in gold does not necessarily signal the start of a sustained downtrend, but it does increase the likelihood of elevated near-term volatility. The market has cleared a significant pocket of downside liquidity, and the next move will hinge on how prices behave around key technical levels.Despite the recent rout, many major banks still expect gold to resume its upward trajectory, citing persistent drivers such as geopolitical tensions, concerns about Federal Reserve independence, and a broader rotation away from traditional assets like currencies and sovereign bonds.JPMorgan Private Bank forecasts gold could reach $6,000 to $6,300 per ounce by year-end, while Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have expressed similarly bullish views.Ultimately, sharp selloffs often create potential entry points. Excessive panic driven by worst-case assumptions can make high-quality companies more attractive at discounted valuations. While AI is undeniably transformative, at this stage it is primarily lowering barriers to entry. The mid- and high-end markets still face hurdles — including enterprise demand, regulatory compliance, and real-world operational stability — all of which will take time to prove out.In extreme market conditions, disciplined position sizing and prudent asset allocation matter more than ever.

Palantir

Applovin

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