Zhongtong Express-W (02057) rose more than 5% in the morning, and as of the time of writing, it rose 4.09%, to HK$150, with a turnover of HK$123 million.
East Securities pointed out that the rapid growth of e-commerce parcels in the current year has shown a strong performance, but it has also led to more intense price competition in the industry, putting pressure on the franchisees. We believe that the current price war is difficult to maintain for a long time. With the continued growth of express business volume in the second half of the year, the industry will probably actively ease the price war under the pressure of capacity. Once the price war eases, the performance of each express company will have a large margin of expansion. At present, the valuation of the express delivery system has a stronger safety margin, and the follow-up stock price has a large upward elasticity.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that it is short-term bullish on the performance of the volume under the release of the submerged market demand, and expects the industry's parcel volume growth rate to be 15%-20% in 2024; at the same time, the leading express delivery companies have stronger certainty in network operation, cost control and profit growth. In the medium and long term, there is still a large room for improvement in the frequency of per capita online shopping in the submerged market, and the transformation of consumption habits under the rise of live e-commerce platforms, and the further strengthening of the trend of small packages will promote the sustained and rapid growth of the demand for the express delivery industry.