Zoom's Hidden Anthropic Bet: A $2B+ Option on AI's Future

For years, the market's view of Zoom was straightforward and narrow. The investment story was a single thread: a video communications company navigating the post-pandemic return-to-office shift. Investors were focused on whether the core business could maintain growth after the global surge in remote work. This narrative, as one analyst noted, was "relatively one-dimensional." It ignored any venture portfolio, treating Zoom as a pure-play software utility.

That view was reflected in the stock price. As of late January 2026, with the stock trading around $92.10, the market was valuing Zoom based solely on that video business trajectory. The price action showed a company in a slow grind, up only modestly over the past year, with a forward P/E of about 22. This was the consensus-Zoom was a mature, steady-growth play, not a hidden equity fund.

The hidden bet was buried in the fine print. In May 2023, Zoom Ventures made a strategic investment in the AI startup Anthropic. At the time, the move was seen as a standard partnership. The true scale of the bet, however, was revealed by a Baird report. The analysts estimated that all, or at least the "vast majority," of Zoom's $51 million in strategic investments went to Anthropic that quarter. For the market, that $51 million was just a footnote in a quarterly filing, not a potential multi-billion dollar asset. The expectation was that Zoom was a video stock. The reality was that it had quietly become a deep-value holding company with a massive, underappreciated equity stake. The expectation gap was wide.

The Expectation Gap: From $51M to $2B-$4B

The market's reaction to the Baird report was a textbook "buy the rumor" event. When the news broke, Zoom shares popped 11%. That move wasn't just a reaction to a new product launch or a guidance hike. It was a direct correction of a massive expectation gap. For years, the market priced in a video stock. The reality, as Baird quantified, was a hidden equity fund with a staggering return.

The numbers are eye-popping. Baird estimates that Zoom's $51 million investment in May 2023 has ballooned to between $2 billion and $4 billion. That implies a return of roughly 78 times the original stake, based on Anthropic's current $350 billion valuation. In a single day, the market's view of that tiny footnote in a quarterly filing shifted from a negligible risk to a potential multi-billion dollar asset. The expectation gap was closed with a pop.

More importantly, this hidden asset now fundamentally alters Zoom's profile. The estimated value of the stake-$2 billion to $4 billion-could eclipse its entire quarterly revenue. That means the market is now valuing Zoom not just on its software business, but on a massive, underappreciated equity position. This isn't a rounding error; it's a re-rating of the entire company's intrinsic value. The setup has changed from a slow-growth utility to a hybrid holding company with a high-conviction, private-market bet.

The Catalyst: Anthropic's IPO and Zoom's Path to Realization

The hidden bet is now facing its first major test. For Zoom, the path to realizing the estimated $2 billion to $4 billion value of its Anthropic stake hinges on a single, uncertain catalyst: the company's initial public offering. The market has priced in the potential, but the actual monetization is still in the future.

Anthropic is actively preparing for that public debut. According to reports, the AI startup is gearing up for an IPO that could happen as soon as 2026. This timeline is critical. It positions Anthropic to potentially go public ahead of its rival, OpenAI, which is eyeing a listing in late 2026 or 2027. The company is also in the midst of a massive funding round, with a $10 billion raise at a $350 billion valuation underway. This dual track-raising capital while prepping for an IPO-suggests the company is building momentum for a public listing, but the exact date remains fluid.

For Zoom, the IPO is the primary, and likely only, near-term mechanism to convert its private equity stake into cash or public market value. The Baird report's $2B-$4B estimate is a projection based on Anthropic's current $350 billion valuation. That number assumes Zoom's stake is not significantly diluted in future funding rounds. The key risk here is dilution. The very funding round that boosts Anthropic's valuation also increases the total number of shares outstanding. If Zoom's stake is diluted, the ultimate cash realization could fall short of the high-end estimates. The market's current expectation is that the stake is worth billions, but the reality of the IPO terms-especially the share price and the final dilution-will determine the actual payoff.

In practice, this creates a classic expectation arbitrage setup. The market has already rewarded Zoom for the potential of the Anthropic bet, with the stock popping on the news. The forward-looking risk is that the IPO catalyst may not materialize on the expected timeline, or that the terms could disappoint. Zoom is now a holding company waiting for a public market event to unlock value. Until that happens, the hidden asset remains just that-a hidden asset. The expectation gap has closed on paper, but the path to realization is paved with uncertainty.

Valuation and What to Watch

The new investment thesis for Zoom is now a game of two narratives. On one hand, the stock's traditional multiples suggest a cheap, steady-growth utility. On the other, a hidden equity fund is priced in at billions. This creates a classic expectation arbitrage setup.

Zoom's core business trades at a forward P/E of about 22 and an enterprise value-to-sales ratio of 4.0. Its PEG ratio of 0.24 is exceptionally low, indicating the market is pricing in modest growth. In a vacuum, this looks cheap. But the valuation is blind to the hidden asset. The estimated $2 billion to $4 billion value of the Anthropic stake is not reflected in these multiples. The stock is being valued on its video business, while the real potential lies in a private equity portfolio. This disconnect is the gap to watch.

The next major catalyst is Zoom's own financial report. The company is scheduled to release its Q4 earnings on February 25th. This is the first chance for management to provide guidance on its AI partnerships and venture portfolio. Investors should listen for any updates on the Anthropic stake, even if just a reaffirmation of the investment. More broadly, management's commentary on growth initiatives and margins will be scrutinized against the backdrop of this hidden bet. Any guidance that suggests the core business is accelerating could further support the stock, while weakness would highlight the risk of the video narrative overshadowing the AI upside.

Beyond Zoom's report, the focus shifts to Anthropic. The key events to monitor are the final terms of its $10 billion funding round and any updates on its IPO timeline. The funding round will determine the final dilution of Zoom's stake. The IPO, potentially as soon as 2026, is the primary mechanism for Zoom to realize value. The market has priced in the potential, but the reality of the public offering-its timing, share price, and overall terms-will validate or break the story. Until then, the hidden asset remains a powerful, but still unrealized, expectation.