ZKsync/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-11-08

Summary
• ZKBTC declined by 8.46% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum.
• RSI oversold and volume surged during the mid-night sell-off.
• Price is now trading within a key Fibonacci support level on the 15-min chart.

ZKsync/Bitcoin (ZKBTC) opened at $6.6e-07 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $6.9e-07, and a low of $5.5e-07, closing at $5.8e-07 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. Total traded volume amounted to 1,609,627.7, with a notional turnover of $886.08. The pair displayed a bearish bias, with a large bearish candle on the 15-min chart, indicating increased selling pressure and potential bearish continuation.

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 20/50 EMA crossover is negative, suggesting downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA alignment is bearish, with the price below all three. A key 15-minute-level support at $5.6e-07–$5.8e-07 was tested multiple times, with recent rejections suggesting consolidation ahead of a potential breakout or breakdown.

The RSI has entered oversold territory, but the divergence between price and RSI during the late-night selloff raises concerns about a deeper pullback. MACD shows a bearish crossover with a shrinking histogram, indicating weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands are currently in a moderate expansion phase, with price hovering near the lower band, which could indicate a high-probability bounce or a continuation of the downward move.

Volume spiked sharply during the mid-night sell-off, particularly around the $6e-07–$5.6e-07 range, indicating aggressive liquidation. Notional turnover increased in tandem with the selloff, suggesting institutional or algorithmic participation. Divergence between price and turnover may indicate short-term exhaustion. The price currently appears to find temporary support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent 15-minute move, which may act as a psychological level for near-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtested strategy of buying ZKBTC when RSI is oversold and holding for five days has yielded mixed results, with a total return of 87.5% but a significant drawdown of -58.4%. While the current RSI reading is in oversold territory, the divergence observed in recent price-volume action may reduce the probability of a successful short-term bounce. Given the current bearish bias and lack of strong bullish confirmation, any strategy relying on RSI alone may face challenges over the next 5 days unless a clear reversal pattern emerges.