ZKsync/Bitcoin Market Overview: 2025-10-12

• ZKBTC consolidated near 3.6e-07 for most of the 24-hour period with minimal price variation.
• A small bearish break below 3.6e-07 occurred around 20:00 ET, confirmed by volume.
• Volatility remained low, with Bollinger Bands showing tight consolidation.
• RSI and MACD showed no significant divergence or momentum shifts.
• Turnover peaked at 456k around 12:15 ET but failed to drive a breakout.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, ZKBTC opened at 3.8e-07, reaching a high of 3.8e-07 and a low of 3.4e-07 before closing at 3.4e-07. Total volume stood at 1.84 million, with a notional turnover of approximately 0.64 BTC. Price remained tightly contained for much of the session, with a key break below 3.6e-07 observed during late ET hours.

Structure & Formations

The ZKBTC pair formed a descending channel over the past 24 hours, with 3.6e-07 acting as a strong psychological and technical resistance-turned-support-turned-resistance. A small bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:00 ET, confirming the break below 3.6e-07. A doji formed at 3.4e-07 near the session close, suggesting indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were closely aligned below 3.6e-07, with price closing below both. The 50EMA acted as a magnet for price near 3.5e-07 during a minor rebound. Longer-term averages like the 200EMA remained distant above 3.7e-07, indicating a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in bear territory throughout the session, with a slight bearish crossover reinforcing the downward move below 3.6e-07. RSI hovered between 40-50 for most of the session, lacking momentum in either direction. A minor dip to 38 occurred at the session close, suggesting mild oversold conditions but with no significant reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low throughout, with Bollinger Bands contracting near 3.6e-07 before a break. The move below 3.6e-07 occurred after a brief expansion, but bands re-contracted shortly thereafter. Price closed just above the lower band at 3.4e-07, suggesting a potential short-term floor.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 456k around 12:15 ET as price tested 3.4e-07, but no follow-through was seen. A large volume print at 188k occurred as the pair closed near 3.4e-07, suggesting some accumulation at the lower end. Notional turnover mirrored the volume flow, peaking at 1.25 BTC but lacking directional strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 3.5e-07 acted as a minor resistance, while the 61.8% level at 3.4e-07 became support. A bounce off the 61.8% level failed to close above it, suggesting bearish continuation is likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve shorting ZKBTC on a confirmed break below 3.6e-07 with volume confirmation, with a stop just above 3.65e-07. The target would be 3.35e-07, based on a 0.618 extension of the 3.6e-07–3.4e-07 swing. This approach aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and the RSI hinting at potential oversold conditions.