Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis and Backtest Insights

Summary
• ZILUSDT declined over 24 hours, closing near 0.00790 after a sharp drop to 0.00767.
• Volatility expanded as price traded within a wide range between 0.00767 and 0.00800.
• Volume surged during the sharp decline, but failed to confirm a strong bearish breakout.

Zilliqa/Tether (ZILUSDT) opened at 0.00794 (12:00 ET–1) and reached a high of 0.00800 before closing at 0.00790 by 12:00 ET today, with a low of 0.00767. The 24-hour total volume was 410.4 million ZIL, with a notional turnover of $3.26 million. Price activity reflected heightened bearish momentum, with several strong down-candles indicating selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 2025-11-10 15:00 ET, confirming a short-term bearish shift. A support level emerged near 0.00772–0.00775, where price bounced twice during the session. Resistance levels remain intact at 0.00790–0.00800, with further tests likely if a reversal develops. A doji formed at 16:45 ET, signaling indecision and potential volatility ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. Daily moving averages show ZILUSDT is still above the 100-EMA and 200-EMA, indicating medium-term support remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish with a negative divergence in the past 6 hours. The RSI dipped to 30, reaching oversold territory briefly, though failed to trigger a strong reversal. This suggests that while bearish momentum is strong, a rebound may be imminent if volume increases at key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band for a brief period. This suggests an increase in uncertainty and risk of further consolidation or a test of the 0.00772 level. However, the bands have since widened, indicating a potential return to mean reversion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early afternoon, particularly around the 15:00 ET down-candle, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, volume has since declined as price approached key support, suggesting a potential bottoming process. Notional turnover also rose during the decline, aligning with price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent high of 0.00800, at 0.00778–0.00780, where a potential pause or bounce is likely. A break below this level would target the 0.00767 swing low, with the 38.2% retrace at 0.00790 offering near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was evaluated using daily RSI-14 < 30 as a buy signal, with a 5-day holding period. Over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10, the strategy showed a **0.93% total return** and an **annualized return of 6.99%**, though with a **maximum drawdown of 55.64%**. These results highlight the potential for a RSI-based strategy in ZILUSDT, but also underscore the risks associated with volatility and drawdowns in a low-liquidity asset. Given today’s RSI reaching 30, a buy signal would be triggered under this strategy, though caution is advised due to the recent sharp move.

Forward-Looking View and Risk

ZILUSDT appears to be in a consolidation phase after a sharp decline, with key support near 0.00772 and resistance at 0.00790. A break above 0.00790 could indicate a bullish reversal, but a failure to hold above 0.00778 may trigger further losses. Investors should closely monitor volume and RSI divergence for early reversal signals.