Zhihu (ZH) Surges 22% in Volatile Session as Mystery Drives Intraday Drama

Summary
• Zhihu’s stock (ZH) rockets 22.11% to $4.335, defying a 52-week low of $3.23 and 52-week high of $6.32
• Intraday range spans $3.93 to $4.52, with turnover surging to 775,610 shares
• Options chain reveals explosive activity in call options, including ZH20260220C5 with 600% price change ratio
• Sector leader Reddit (RDDT) lags with -0.147% intraday decline, highlighting ZH’s divergence

Zhihu’s stock has ignited a firestorm of speculation, surging over 22% in a single session amid a lack of concrete news. The move defies a bearish 52-week context and raises urgent questions about catalysts. With options volatility spiking and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the market is scrambling to decode this anomaly.
Share Buybacks and Regulatory Filings Fuel Zhihu's Intraday Surge
The explosive move in ZH stems from a combination of regulatory filings and strategic capital management. A recent 6-K report disclosed Zhihu’s accelerated NYSE share buybacks under Hong Kong regulations, signaling management’s confidence in undervaluation. While the filing itself is routine, the timing coincides with a surge in institutional activity. Additionally, the absence of substantive news in the company’s latest disclosures has left investors speculating about potential earnings surprises or strategic pivots in Q4 2025.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on ZH’s Volatility with Precision
• MACD: -0.058 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -0.107 (oversold), RSI: 54.55 (neutral)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $4.335 vs. upper band $3.58 (compression suggests breakout potential)
• 200D MA: $4.19 (price above key support), 30D MA: $3.44 (bullish crossover)

Top Options Contracts:
• ZH20260220C5 (Call, $5 strike, Feb 20 expiry):
- IV: 98.12% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 12.51% (high gearing)
- Delta: 0.408 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0084 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: 440 (liquid)
- Gamma: 0.273 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.165 (max(0, 4.55 - 5))
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a short-term breakout.

• ZH20260320C5 (Call, $5 strike, Mar 20 expiry):
- IV: 65.01% (reasonable)
- Leverage Ratio: 15.64% (strong gearing)
- Delta: 0.380 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0043 (slower decay)
- Turnover: 6,596 (high liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.310 (high sensitivity)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.165
- Why: Balances time decay with liquidity, ideal for holding through potential earnings or news.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize ZH20260220C5 for a 20-day breakout play. Conservative traders may opt for ZH20260320C5 to ride the volatility wave. Watch for a close above $4.52 to confirm bullish momentum.

Backtest Zhihu Stock Performance
The backtest of ZH's performance after a 22% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals mixed results. While the 3-Day, 10-Day, and 30-Day win rates are relatively high, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the overall returns over these periods are negative, with the maximum return being -0.37% over 30 days.

Zhihu’s Momentum: A Call to Action for Aggressive Bulls
Zhihu’s 22% surge is a high-stakes gamble, driven by buyback announcements and speculative fervor. While the 52-week range suggests a potential rebound from $3.23, the current technical setup favors a continuation above $4.52. With Reddit (RDDT) down -0.147%, ZH’s divergence highlights its unique catalyst. Investors should monitor the $4.00 support level and the $5.00 psychological barrier. For those with a high-risk appetite, the ZH20260220C5 call option offers explosive potential if the price breaks out of its Bollinger Band compression. Act now: Buy ZH20260220C5 if $4.335 holds above $4.00; exit if it retests $3.93.