Zevra Therapeutics Plunges 22%—What’s Behind the Sudden Collapse?

Summary
• Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) crashed 22% to $9.17, undercutting its 50-day line after reporting its first-ever quarterly profit that missed bullish expectations.
• Q2 revenue hit $25.9M, driven by Miplyffa’s $21.5M sales, but Olpruva generated just $300K, far below $500K forecasts.
• The company sold a $150M PRV and recorded a $58.7M intangible asset impairment, signaling cautious optimism amid competitive pressures.
• With a 52-week low of $6.19 now in sight, the stock’s technicals and options chain reveal a volatile crossroads for traders.

Earnings Miss and Competitive Pressures Trigger Sell-Off
Zevra’s 22% intraday plunge was fueled by a stark earnings miss and mixed product performance. While Miplyffa’s $21.5M in sales (up 900% YoY) exceeded expectations, the $1.21 EPS fell far short of the $2.26 consensus. Worse, Olpruva’s $300K revenue—just 60% of forecasts—highlighted struggles in a mature urea cycle disorder market dominated by Amgen’s Buphenyl and Ravicti. Compounding the issue, Zevra’s $58.7M impairment charge and inventory write-down signaled cautious guidance. Analysts like William Blair’s Sami Corwin remain bullish on Miplyffa’s long-term potential, but near-term competitive dynamics and patient retention risks have spooked investors.

Biotech Sector Volatile Amid M&A and Regulatory Shifts
The biotech sector remains fragmented as Zevra’s collapse contrasts with Amgen’s 1.13% intraday gain. While Zevra’s rare disease focus faces pricing and adoption hurdles, peers like Insmed (INSMD) and Biohaven (BHVN) also grapple with mixed trial results and regulatory scrutiny. The sector’s IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating of 94 (top 6%) underscores its resilience, but Zevra’s 8.47% turnover rate and 3.59 P/E ratio highlight its vulnerability to earnings volatility.

Options and ETFs for Navigating Zevra’s Volatility
• MACD: 0.299 (Signal Line: 0.331, Histogram: -0.033) suggests bearish momentum.
• RSI: 49.82 (neutral) indicates no overbought/oversold extremes.
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $9.17 (vs. Lower Band: $10.58) signals oversold territory.
• 200D MA: $8.71 (below current price) hints at potential support.

Top Options:
• ZVRA20250919P9 (Put, $9 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 112.23% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 7.64%
- Delta: -0.403 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.011 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.117 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 26,880 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.46 (max(0, $9 - $8.71)).
- Why: High IV and gamma make this put ideal for a short-term bearish bet if ZVRA breaks below $9.
• ZVRA20251121P9 (Put, $9 strike, 2025-11-21):
- IV: 84.28% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 6.32%
- Delta: -0.386 (balanced)
- Theta: -0.0056 (low decay)
- Gamma: 0.094 (modest sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3,425 (adequate liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.46 (max(0, $9 - $8.71)).
- Why: Lower IV and longer expiration offer a safer play for a gradual decline.

ETF Note: No leveraged ETF data available, but Zevra’s 8.47% turnover rate suggests sufficient liquidity for options trading. Aggressive bulls may consider ZVRA20251121C10 (Call, $10 strike) if the stock rebounds above $10.58 (Bollinger Lower Band).

Backtest Zevra Stock Performance
The ZVRA ETF has demonstrated a positive performance following a -22% intraday plunge. The backtest data shows that the 3-day win rate is 52.92%, the 10-day win rate is 52.73%, and the 30-day win rate is 56.87%. Additionally, the ETF achieved a maximum return of 7.15% within 59 days after the plunge, indicating a potential for recovery.

Zevra at Crossroads—Watch $8.71 Support and Miplyffa Momentum
Zevra’s 22% drop has pushed it near its 52-week low of $6.19, but the stock’s 3.59 P/E ratio and Miplyffa’s $21.5M sales suggest a floor at $8.71 (200D MA). Traders should monitor the $9.17 level for a potential rebound and the $10.58 Bollinger Band for a bullish breakout. Meanwhile, Amgen’s 1.13% gain highlights the sector’s resilience. For now, the ZVRA20250919P9 put offers a high-conviction short-term play if the stock breaks below $9. Watch for $8.71 support or a Miplyffa-driven reversal.