ZEROBASE/USDC Market Overview – 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price opened at 0.16 and closed at 0.1519 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• Key support tested near 0.1500 and 0.1464, with volume intensifying below 0.1540.
• Overbought conditions reversed into oversold territory, signaling potential bounce or continuation.

Opening Narrative

ZeroBASE/USDC (ZBTUSDC) opened at 0.16 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and saw a bearish 24-hour session, closing at 0.1519 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.1615 and 0.1464, with a total volume of 4.07 million and a notional turnover of approximately 638,300 USDC.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a bearish consolidation with a series of Bearish Engulfing and Dark Cloud Cover patterns from 0.1581 to 0.1557 and again from 0.1573 to 0.1543. A bearish breakdown from 0.1551 to 0.1503 was observed, testing key support levels at 0.1500 and 0.1464. A notable Doji formed near 0.1521, suggesting indecision and a potential turning point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages indicate bearish momentum, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line (death cross). The daily chart shows the 50-period and 100-period moving averages converging around 0.1535, which could serve as a short-term pivot.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram turned negative after 0.1580, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has fallen into oversold territory (<30) near 0.1519, hinting at potential short-term bounce, though further downside remains a risk.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has been squeezed within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, indicating low volatility. A break below the lower band at 0.1464 would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, while a rebound above the midline at 0.1500 may signal a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has remained above average throughout the session, especially during the breakdown from 0.1521 to 0.1503. Notional turnover spiked near 0.1557 and 0.1503, validating key support levels and the bearish shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.1604–0.1503 swing, key levels include 0.1549 (38.2%) and 0.1534 (61.8%). The price found temporary support near 0.1534 before breaking below it. A retest of 0.1519 could see further consolidation or a breakout to the downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the prevalence of Bearish Engulfing patterns in the data, a potential backtesting strategy could involve selling on confirmation of each Bearish Engulfing formation and closing the position after a 3-day holding period. For example, a sell signal at 0.1557 (from 0.1573 to 0.1557) could have yielded a 3.1% gain by 0.1519. The strategy’s success depends on confirming high-volume validation at key levels and avoiding false signals in low-volatility environments.