Zelensky's NATO Outfit Sparks $79 Million Betting Dispute on Polymarket

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s attire at a June 24 NATO meeting in the Netherlands has sparked a significant dispute among bettors on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform. A user created a betting market questioning whether Zelensky would wear a suit before July, with the requirement of a video or photo of him in a suit between May 22 and June 30. The market accumulated nearly $79 million in volume, with the initial result landing on “yes,” but it has since been disputed twice and awaits a final decision.

On July 1, Polymarket acknowledged the dispute, stating that credible reporting had not confirmed whether Zelensky had worn a suit. The debate centers around whether Zelensky’s ensemble qualifies as a suit. Those in favor argue that the outfit, made from similar cloth with a formal appearance, should be considered a suit regardless of cuts and style. Opponents contend that the black shirt and jacket resemble a casual blazer rather than a traditional suit, and the trainers do not match the rest of the outfit.

A community-run Polymarket account on X, Polymarket Intel, classified Zelensky’s outfit as a suit. However, ChatGPT, when asked by Cointelegraph, stated that the outfit lacks key elements of a traditional suit and is more akin to a military-style field jacket or tactical coat. Canadian men’s fashion industry writer and commentator Derek Guy added to the confusion, stating that Zelensky’s outfit is “both a suit and not a suit.”

This is not the first time Zelensky’s outfit has caused controversy on Polymarket. A similar betting market closed on May 31, sparking a debate about whether an outfit Zelensky wore in a meeting in Germany that month was a suit. Polymarket eventually determined that it was not a suit. Derek Guy also weighed in on that debate, declaring that Zelensky was technically wearing a suit, defined as “just a garment where the jacket and pants have been cut from the same cloth.”

Zelensky has faced criticism for not wearing a suit to formal meetings with world leaders. He himself stated that he would wear a suit again when the war against Russia ended. A report by The Kyiv Independent explained that Zelensky prefers a more casual military-style outfit because the war is still ongoing, and wearing a suit would imply that the war is over.

Polymarket has been at the center of several other controversies this year, including the proposed TikTok ban in January, where arguments over technical details of the outcome arose because the platform was banned but still available for use when the betting market closed. Polymarket employs UMA Protocol’s blockchain oracles for external data to settle market outcomes and verify real-world events. The UMA has faced allegations of manipulation in the past, such as in the case of a bet over a $7 million Ukraine mineral deal.

A report argued that the entire market relies on “trust in the data,” and that trust has been broken because the data is fragmented, unverifiable, and too often manipulable. When no one can verify a price, the outcome, or even simple events like whether it rained, the market itself collapses. If the person verifying the outcome is also betting on the game, truth becomes debatable.