ZEC Weekly Flow: The $642M Open Interest Test at $240

The recent move has been severe. Zcash has fallen more than 65% from its November 2025 high of $775, bringing the price down to current levels near $240. This deep retracement marks a clear shift from the momentum-driven rally of the prior year to a corrective phase.

The immediate battleground is the $230–$240 support zone. This area is a long-term demand level that has historically slowed downside continuation. Price is now consolidating here, with the defense of this band being the primary technical signal for whether the selling pressure is exhausting.

A key bullish signal is forming: a bullish divergence where price made lower lows but momentum indicators failed to confirm. This divergence, developing as ZEC trades into this major support, hints at potential seller exhaustion and could foreshadow a stabilization or rebound.

Leverage and Liquidity: The $642M Open Interest Signal

The market is showing high leverage, with total open interest at $642.09 million. This is a massive figure relative to the spot market, where 24-hour volume sits at just $79.78 million. The futures volume of $852.44 million dwarfs spot, indicating that a significant portion of recent trading is speculative positioning, not direct ownership.

This leverage amplifies volatility. In the past 24 hours, $1.5 million in ZEC futures positions were liquidated. Such a large liquidation event signals sharp price swings and forced unwinding, which can accelerate moves in either direction. It shows the market is still adjusting to the recent deep drop, with traders on both sides getting caught.

The technical picture is mixed. While a bullish divergence is forming, the current 14-day RSI is 55.8, sitting in neutral territory. This tempers the bullish signal from momentum, suggesting the market lacks strong conviction to break decisively higher. The setup is one of tension: high leverage and recent liquidations create downside risk, but neutral momentum and a key support zone offer a floor for a potential reversal.

Catalysts and Scenarios: Breakout or Breakdown

The next major move hinges on a battle for the $240 level. A decisive break above the $230–$240 support zone is needed to confirm the bullish divergence and signal that selling pressure is exhausted. This would open the path for a recovery toward prior 2025 highs near $360–$400. The setup is for a potential mean reversion, but the bullish signal requires price to hold above this critical band.

The risk of a breakdown is equally significant. A failure to defend the $240 zone could trigger a deeper slide into the low-$200s. Technical patterns point to a potential weekly falling wedge breakdown targeting $196. This would invalidate the current corrective structure and delay any recovery, exposing the market to further downside momentum.

Monitor the $642M open interest level as a key flow indicator. A sustained increase would signal new capital flowing into leveraged positions, supporting a breakout. Conversely, a sharp decline would suggest capitulation and unwinding, fueling a breakdown. The current high leverage means this level will be a leading signal for the next directional move.