New Zealand's primary exports set to hit record $60 billion by 2025, reaching $65.7 billion by 2029.

New Zealand's primary exports are projected to reach a record $60 billion in the June 2025 year, up from $56.9 billion in the December 2022 year. The agriculture and forestry sector is expected to lead the growth, with exports projected to reach $65.7 billion by 2029. Strong global demand and healthy prices are driving the growth.

New Zealand's primary exports are poised to achieve a historic milestone, with projections indicating a record $60 billion in the June 2025 year, up from $56.9 billion in December 2022 [2]. The agriculture and forestry sector is expected to lead this growth, with exports projected to reach $65.7 billion by 2029 [2]. This surge is driven by strong global demand and robust prices across key markets.

The dairy sector is a significant contributor to this growth. The new season milk prices suggest another profitable year ahead, supported by firmer commodity markets and a weaker New Zealand dollar compared to last year [1]. Beef prices remain strong, driven by tight domestic supply and robust US demand, while sheepmeat prices have surged due to tight supply in the South Island [1]. The resurgence in Chinese demand for sheepmeat is also a positive sign for the industry.

Farm inputs, such as urea prices, have declined sharply, partly due to the return of China to the export market after 18 months of limited exports [1]. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut interest rates, signaling that the end of the cutting cycle could be approaching [1]. Crude oil prices have risen, but the announcement of another round of production increases by OPEC+ could cap further rallies [1].

The outlook for New Zealand's beef sector is mixed. While export volumes are expected to be lower this season, particularly to China, export values remain strong, driven by demand from the U.S. and Europe [3]. The beef industry is heavily linked to the dairy industry, with nearly all cattle slaughtered in the country having some degree of dairy influence. The New Zealand cattle herd has been decreasing since 2016, with a nationwide ban on live animal exports imposed in 2023 [3]. Despite this, the beef industry continues to be a significant global player, with New Zealand usually considered the sixth-largest beef export nation.

The new government, formed at the end of 2023, has implemented policies that support farmers, including the removal of punitive prices for agricultural emissions and the repeal of policies that excluded cattle from grazing on certain areas [3]. However, lingering impacts from the previous regime continue to affect farm profitability, with major delays in machinery parts and repairs, and the national cattle herd decreasing at a rate of 1.2% annually since 2014 [3].

References:

[1] https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011437379-new-zealand-agribusiness-june-2025-a-strong-price-setting-to-start-off-winter
[2] https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/agribusiness/new-zealand-primary-exports-set-to-hit-record-60b-ministry-for-primary-industries/D6JNW75KRVDUNGV7DUF5SPTIMM/
[3] https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/global-beef-roundup-focus-on-new-zealand