Zealand Pharma's Obesity Portfolio and Competitive Position in the GLP-1 Space

The obesity drug market in 2025 is a battleground of innovation, with GLP-1 receptor agonists dominating therapeutic and commercial landscapes. Zealand Pharma, a mid-sized biotech player, has positioned itself as a challenger to industry giants like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly by prioritizing R&D differentiation and strategic partnerships. This analysis evaluates Zealand's long-term potential in the GLP-1 space, focusing on its pipeline, competitive positioning, and market readiness.

Portfolio Analysis: Navigating a Crowded Field

Zealand's current obesity portfolio centers on two key candidates: petrelintide and survodutide. Petrelintide, an amylin analog developed in collaboration with Roche, is in phase 2 trials and has demonstrated a favorable gastrointestinal side effect profile compared to GLP-1 leaders like Wegovy and Zepbound. Mid-stage results are expected in early 2026, with late-stage development slated for 2026. Meanwhile, survodutide, a dual glucagon/GLP-1 receptor agonist in partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim, is in phase 3 trials for obesity and is projected to deliver topline data in mid-2026.

The company has paused development of dapiglutide due to the increasingly competitive market and the high bar for differentiation. While dapiglutide showed 11.6% weight loss in phase 1b trials, its trial demographics (over 90% male participants) raised questions about generalizability. This strategic pivot underscores Zealand's focus on assets with clearer pathways to commercial success.

R&D Strategy: Speed, Collaboration, and Innovation

Zealand's "Metabolic Frontier 2030" strategy aims to launch five drugs by 2030 while accelerating development timelines. The company has also expanded its pipeline through partnerships, such as its recent collaboration with OTR Therapeutics to develop oral small-molecule metabolic treatments. This diversification reflects a dual approach: leveraging its expertise in peptide-based therapies while exploring complementary modalities to address unmet needs in obesity management.

The decision to prioritize petrelintide and survodutide aligns with Zealand's focus on mechanistic differentiation. Amylin-based therapies like petrelintide offer a distinct mechanism compared to GLP-1 monotherapies, potentially reducing side effects and improving patient adherence. Survodutide's dual glucagon/GLP-1 agonism also positions it to compete with multi-agonist therapies, a trend gaining traction as payers and prescribers demand higher efficacy.

Competitive Landscape: Efficacy, Safety, and Market Share

In 2025, Novo Nordisk's semaglutide (Wegovy) and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide (Zepbound) dominate the GLP-1 obesity market. Semaglutide holds a 58% market share, but its lead is expected to erode as tirzepatide-Eli Lilly's dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist-emerges as the new standard. Tirzepatide demonstrated 20.2% weight loss over 72 weeks, outperforming semaglutide's 13.7%.

However, Zealand faces significant hurdles. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have established reimbursement networks and brand loyalty, while legal challenges (e.g., multi-district litigation over gastrointestinal injuries) could delay competitors' market expansion. For Zealand to succeed, its therapies must demonstrate not only clinical differentiation but also cost-effectiveness in a cost-conscious healthcare environment.

Market Readiness and Long-Term Outlook

Zealand's 2030 strategy hinges on rapid development cycles and strategic collaborations, but execution risks remain. The phase 3 results for survodutide and phase 2 data for petrelintide will be critical inflection points. If these programs meet endpoints, Zealand could secure a foothold in the obesity market by 2030. However, the company's reliance on partnerships (e.g., with Roche and Boehringer Ingelheim) introduces dependency on collaborators' resources and priorities.

The broader market is shifting toward multi-agonist and combination therapies, a trend Zealand is addressing through its dual-agonist pipeline and oral molecule collaborations. This aligns with industry expectations for next-generation obesity treatments but requires significant investment in late-stage trials and regulatory navigation.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Play

Zealand Pharma's obesity portfolio represents a calculated bet on differentiation in a hyper-competitive GLP-1 space. While its candidates lack the immediate efficacy of tirzepatide or semaglutide, their focus on tolerability and novel mechanisms could carve a niche in the market. The company's 2030 strategy and partnerships with industry leaders like Roche and Boehringer Ingelheim provide a strong foundation, but success hinges on clinical validation and regulatory approval. For investors, Zealand offers a speculative opportunity with the potential to disrupt the obesity landscape-if its R&D pipeline delivers on its promises.