New Zealand Card Spending Rises 0.5% in July, ANZ Reports.

New Zealand's card spending rose 0.5% in July, according to ANZ. Consumer durables advanced, while technology services declined. The country's milk production in 2024 and 2025 seasons could reach record highs, and the inflation expectations fell in August. The OCR is seen falling to 3.02% in the September quarter.

Title: New Zealand's Economic Outlook: Card Spending, Milk Production, and Inflation

July 02, 2025

New Zealand's economic landscape continues to evolve with significant developments in consumer spending, agricultural production, and inflation expectations. According to ANZ, card spending in the country rose by 0.5% in July, driven by growth in consumer durables while technology services saw a decline [1]. This increase in spending is a positive indicator for the country's economic health.

In a separate development, Rabobank has forecasted that New Zealand's milk production in the 2024-2025 season could reach record highs. This projection underscores the country's strong agricultural sector and its role as a significant global dairy exporter [2]. The potential increase in milk production is expected to bolster the dairy industry's financial performance and contribute to the broader economic growth.

Adding to these economic indicators, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations revealed a decline in inflation forecasts. For the next two years, business managers expect inflation to be at 2.28%, a slight decrease from the previous period's 2.29%. One-year inflation expectations also eased to 2.37%, while longer-term projections showed a marginal increase in five-year-ahead inflation expectations to 2.26% [3]. These trends suggest a stable inflation environment, which is favorable for economic planning and investment.

Furthermore, the survey indicated that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is expected to fall to 3.02% by the end of the September 2025 quarter, declining further to 2.86% by the end of the June 2026 quarter. This downward trend in interest rates could stimulate economic activity by making borrowing more affordable for businesses and consumers.

In summary, New Zealand's economic indicators are showing signs of growth and stability. The rise in card spending, potential record-high milk production, and stable inflation expectations provide a positive outlook for the country's economic future. The expected decrease in the OCR further supports this optimistic view, signaling a favorable environment for both domestic and international investors.

References:
[1] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/new-zealand-milk-production-in-2024-2025-season-could-rise-to-record-high-rabobank-says-ce7c5eded080f322
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:475892:0-new-zealand-2-year-inflation-expectations-at-2-28/