Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) Market Overview: Strong Rally, Volatility, and Divergence Signals

• ZECUSDT opened at $237.14 and surged to $273.37 before retracing, closing at $252.97, a 7.8% gain in 24 hours.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged post-00:00 ET with a sharp move above $260, confirmed by increasing volume and RSI crossing into overbought territory.
• Volatility spiked with Bollinger Band expansion post-05:00 ET, aligning with a breakout above key resistance at $260.
• A divergence emerged between price and volume in the afternoon, with volume declining while ZECUSDT fell from $270.84 to $252.97.
• A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $255.30 appears to act as a short-term support ahead of the $250 psychological level.

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at $237.14 on October 23 at 12:00 ET, hitting an intraday high of $273.37 and a low of $232.81, before closing at $252.97 on October 24 at 12:00 ET. The pair rose 7.8% over 24 hours. Total volume was 249,678.41 ZEC, and notional turnover reached $64,855,470. The candlestick pattern reflects a strong bullish breakout and subsequent consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, ZECUSDT exhibited a powerful bullish breakout above $260, supported by a strong 15-minute candle at 02:45 ET that closed at $260.36 on high volume. A potential resistance cluster formed between $265–267, which was tested but not decisively breached. A notable bearish pinbar formed at 14:00 ET with a high of $262.0 and close at $260.72, signaling caution. Key support levels emerged at $256 and $252, with the latter showing increasing bearish pressure during the final hours.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bullish in the early hours of October 24, confirming the upward trend. By 06:00 ET, the 50-period MA was at $258.17, above the 20-period MA at $260.11. The MACD showed a clear golden cross at 01:00 ET, with the line crossing above the signal line and remaining in positive territory. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 between 01:15 and 03:45 ET before retreating, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish move.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the breakout above $260, indicating rising volatility. Price peaked at $273.37 at 12:45 ET and pulled back within the bands, remaining above the 20-period MA until 16:00 ET. A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the low of $232.81 to the high of $273.37 shows key levels at 61.8% ($255.30) and 38.2% ($256.79). ZECUSDT found support near 61.8% and has remained above this level since 16:00 ET.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

The most significant volume spikes occurred during the early morning rally, particularly in the 00:45 to 02:30 ET window, with a large candle at 00:45 ET showing 12,675 ZEC traded. However, as price declined from $270.84 to $252.97 between 14:00 and 16:00 ET, volume dropped to 12,276 ZEC, indicating a potential divergence. This suggests weakening conviction in the bullish move, increasing the risk of a test of the $250 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish momentum and the MACD golden cross observed, a potential backtest strategy using a MACD-Golden-Cross could provide insights into ZECUSDT’s directional tendencies. While the current backtesting engine is limited to daily bars, a 1-day holding period could offer a simplified approximation of the 15-minute strategy. This would allow testing whether the pair historically reacts to such crossover signals with a directional bias, even at a coarser resolution. If supported, a more detailed intraday setup could be considered as engine capabilities expand.