Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-15

• ZECUSDT opened at $52.96 and closed at $51.01 over 24 hours, down by ~3.66%.
• A sharp bearish breakdown occurred in the late evening ET, with a high-volume sell-off driving price below key support.
• RSI showed oversold conditions by early morning, while MACD turned negative and remained bearish.
• Volatility expanded on a large 15-min candle during the 20:45 ET sell-off, breaking below a prior 15-day support level.

Opening Summary

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at $52.96 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at $51.01 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15. The pair touched a high of $53.48 and a low of $49.60 during the 24-hour window. Total volume was 68,394.38 ZEC, and total turnover was approximately $3,477,550, with a clear bearish bias in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a critical breakdown below key support at $51.20 after a high-volume 20:45 ET candle (volume: 5,727.845 ZEC) drove price sharply lower to $50.55. This candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern and confirmed a breakdown of the 15-day low. Earlier in the session, ZECUSDT tested resistance around $53.40, failing to hold above that level.

A series of bearish pin bars and lower wicks suggest strong selling pressure, especially between 20:00–22:00 ET. The price has not found meaningful support since the breakdown, and the nearest resistance is at $51.20–$51.40.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs crossed below key price levels late in the session, confirming bearish momentum. The MACD turned negative in the early morning and remained below the signal line, with bearish divergence in the final 2–3 hours of the session.

RSI reached oversold territory (below 30) by 01:00 ET, but buying pressure failed to emerge, suggesting continued bearish sentiment. The oscillator has since flattened, indicating a pause in short-term momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakdown, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening. Price closed below the lower band at $50.55, indicating strong bearish pressure. The previous day’s consolidation phase had seen narrow bands, suggesting traders were positioning ahead of the move.

Volume and turnover spiked during the 20:45 ET candle, with volume nearly 5x the average. Notional turnover also surged, confirming the breakdown rather than indicating a false move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $49.60 to $53.48, the 61.8% retracement level is around $51.40, where price has stalled in the final hours. The 38.2% level is at $51.76, and the 50% level at $51.54. Price is likely to find near-term support at $50.80–$51.00 if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves using a 20-period EMA crossover with RSI as a filter. When price breaks below the 20-period EMA and RSI dips below 30, a short position is entered, targeting the next Fibonacci retracement level. Stop-loss could be placed at the recent swing high, with take-profit set at the 61.8% retracement. This strategy may need to be refined for intraday volatility and order flow conditions.