Zcash/Tether Market Overview (ZECUSDT)

Summary
• ZEC/USDT fell 2.0% in 24 hours amid bearish engulfing patterns and declining momentum.
• Volume surged to 194,763.77, but price remains below key 20SMA and 50SMA levels.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce, but bearish bias holds.

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at $497.2 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $503.95, dropped to a low of $440.44, and closed at $443.31 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. Total volume was 194,763.77 ZEC, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $88.19M across the 24-hour period. The pair appears to be consolidating at the lower end of a 15-minute Bollinger Band expansion, with bearish momentum dominating.

Structure & Formations

ZEC/USDT formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns during the late ET hours, notably at $498.12, $483.52, and $470.54, all of which signaled short-term bearish bias. A key support level is now forming around $440–450, where recent lows have found some buyers. Resistance at $470–475 remains intact but appears vulnerable to further breakdown. A doji candle near $441.15 suggests indecision and possible near-term stabilization.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ZEC/USDT closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating a bearish bias in short-term trading. For the daily timeframe, price is also below the 50DMA and 200DMA, reinforcing a medium-term bearish trend. The 100DMA offers no support, currently sitting well above the current price.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remains below the signal line with bearish divergence, suggesting continued downward pressure. RSI has dipped toward oversold territory (below 30), signaling potential for a short-term bounce, but this is unlikely to reverse the broader downtrend. Momentum appears to be slowing but remains bearish in nature.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded on the 15-minute chart, with price currently resting near the lower band, reinforcing oversold conditions. A bounce back toward the middle band could trigger a counter-trend move, but a sustained break below the current low would indicate a deepening bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning ET hours, especially at 23:45 ET and 00:00 ET, confirming bearish action. However, price has since consolidated, and volume has eased, suggesting a pause in selling pressure. Turnover and price action remain aligned in bearish direction, though divergences may indicate near-term exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings from $450.1 to $425.0 align with key Fibonacci levels. A 61.8% retracement level is currently at $434.9, while the 38.2% level is at $443.6, which has provided temporary support. On the daily chart, a 50% retracement of the larger move from $503.95 to $440.44 sits near $472.20, acting as a critical resistance threshold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern has shown historical potential in a short-biased strategy using daily ZEC/USDT data. A 1-day holding period with no stop-loss produced a total return of 41.29% from 2022–01–01 to 2025–11–11, with an annualized return of 12.15% and an average trade P&L of 0.73%. While the strategy’s Sharpe ratio of 0.34 is modest, the recent price action aligns with its core assumptions, particularly the bearish engulfing patterns observed in the last 24 hours.