Zcash/Tether Market Overview (ZECUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• ZEC/USDT declines sharply from $151.90 to $127.54 in 24 hours, closing at $132.81 with bearish momentum
• High volatility and large volume spikes indicate strong selling pressure after a key bearish reversal
• RSI oversold at 29, suggesting potential bounce, but lacks immediate bullish confirmation
• Price breaks below key 20-period MA; Bollinger Bands widen, reflecting increased uncertainty
• Turnover remains uneven, with significant volume spikes at key support levels

Opening Snapshot and 24-Hour Performance

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at $145.30 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at $132.81 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour range was $151.90 high to $124.03 low. Total volume reached 183,742.23 ZEC, with a notional turnover of $24,892,660.59. A sharp downward move from the 16:00 ET session to early morning signals bearish exhaustion.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

A strong bearish reversal pattern formed around the 23:15 ET and 00:00 ET candles, with the price dropping from $129.62 to $127.32. This confirmed a breakdown of the $135–$140 range. A potential bullish engulfing pattern appeared at the 06:00–06:15 ET candles, but it failed to sustain momentum. A doji appeared at the 07:00 ET candle, indicating indecision near $132.80, a potential short-term support.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have crossed below the price, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period MA at $137.67 and 100-period MA at $139.22 both sit above the current price, forming a bearish divergence. The RSI stands at 29, signaling oversold territory, though without a strong bullish reversal, a bounce may not materialize. MACD remains negative with bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volume Activity

Bollinger Bands widened significantly from $125–$136 to $124–$138, reflecting increased volatility. Price has stayed near the lower band for the last 4 hours, indicating oversold conditions. The highest volume spike occurred at $127.54, a critical support level. A divergence between volume and price suggests potential reversal, but bearish control remains dominant.

Fibonacci Retracements and Short-Term Levels

Fibonacci levels drawn from the key swing high at $151.90 to the low at $124.03 show 61.8% at $133.27 and 78.6% at $129.33. Price currently hovers near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential bounce if bulls can reclaim the 20-period MA. Resistance is likely to be tested at $135–$136, with a break above that indicating a possible retracement to $140.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 20-period MA after an RSI reading below 30 and confirmation by a bullish engulfing pattern. This setup could target a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $133.27, with a stop loss placed below the 78.6% level. If applied to this dataset, such a strategy would have triggered a long entry at $135.11 with an initial target at $136.50, though the current bearish momentum complicates immediate execution.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

While the price appears to be finding some short-term support near $132.80, the broader bearish momentum suggests further consolidation below the 20-period MA is likely. Traders should remain cautious, as a break below $127.54 could initiate another leg lower. Key support and resistance levels should be closely monitored for potential trend continuation or reversal.