Zcash/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• ZECUSDT declines 14.6% over 24 hours, with bearish continuation seen after a key breakdown below $650.
• Price action shows increasing bearish momentum, supported by declining volume and RSI divergence.
• A potential support zone emerges near $510, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligning with it.

Zcash (ZEC) traded against Tether (USDT) opened at $717.45 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $541.69 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $745.45 and a low of $507.78 during the 24-hour window, with a total traded volume of 696,979.26 ZEC and a notional turnover of $374,926,189.66. The market exhibits a clear bearish bias, with a breakdown below key support levels signaling potential further downside.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the past 24 hours highlights a strong bearish continuation, as the price broke below the $650 psychological level and found short-term support near $510. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed on the 15-minute chart during the 02:15–02:30 ET window, confirming the shift in sentiment. A key support cluster appears between $510 and $505, which could serve as a short-term floor if buyers step in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are well below the current price, indicating a long-term downtrend. The 100-day MA is also trending lower, aligning with the broader bearish setup.

MACD & RSI

The 12, 26 MACD remains in negative territory, with the signal line catching up, suggesting momentum is stabilizing on the bearish side. The RSI is currently at ~40, indicating a moderate oversold condition, though divergence between price and RSI suggests exhaustion on the downside may be near. This suggests that while the move lower is likely to continue, a short-term bounce could be possible.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly over the past 24 hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the sharp decline in price. The price currently trades near the lower band, which supports the bearish narrative. A contraction in the bands may indicate a potential reversal, but this would require confirmation from other indicators.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown below key support levels, confirming the bearish move. However, recent volume has been declining, which may indicate exhaustion in the short term. Notional turnover has also decreased, suggesting a potential lull in selling pressure. Divergence between volume and price is minimal, indicating that the current bearish move remains supported by underlying demand.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $745.45 to $507.78, the 61.8% level aligns closely with $510, which coincides with key support. This confluence of Fibonacci and price action strengthens the case for this level acting as a short-term floor. Further down, the 78.6% level lies near $460, which could be a possible target if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand the predictive power of bearish candlestick patterns such as the Bearish Engulfing, a backtest strategy could be developed to analyze their performance on ZECUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08. The idea would be to identify all Bearish Engulfing patterns and evaluate their subsequent price performance over a 1–5 day period, measuring both profit/loss and win rates. If historical data confirms the effectiveness of such patterns in this pair, it could reinforce the current bearish bias and guide tactical short-term exits or entries.