Zcash/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour ZECUSDT Technical Breakdown

• Zcash/Tether declined sharply in the early hours before rallying to close near 137.89, showing bearish pressure followed by a rebound.
• Key support at 127.54 and resistance at 144.42 were tested, with a failed breakout above 145.35 reinforcing bearish bias.
• Momentum via RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions earlier, but divergence in the late session suggested caution.
• Volume was concentrated during the 23:00–04:00 ET sell-off, while turnover spiked during the rebound from 06:00–09:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded during the 23:15–23:30 ET collapse, with Bollinger Bands widening below 130.

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at 145.30 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 151.90 and falling to a low of 127.54 before closing at 137.89 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 445,844.70 ZEC, while notional turnover was approximately $59,650,900. The session featured a bearish breakdown from initial resistance at 150.38 and a sharp rebound from key support at 127.54.

The 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish engulfing pattern at 23:15–23:30 ET, with a large red candle closing at 127.91, signaling short-term bearish momentum. This was followed by a series of green candles from 06:00–09:00 ET that formed a bullish continuation pattern, pushing price above 135.11. The 50-period moving average (139.50) and 20-period moving average (140.00) acted as overhead resistance during the rebound. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA (134.00) and 50-period MA (136.70) appear to be forming a bearish bias, with price closing just above the 50 MA.

The MACD turned negative during the 23:15–23:30 ET sell-off and remained bearish through the morning. However, a positive crossover in the morning hours coincided with the price rebound. RSI reached overbought conditions above 65 at 09:00 ET, then declined to neutral levels (45–50) by mid-morning, suggesting the rally may be losing steam. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 23:15–23:30 ET selloff and remained expanded through the morning, reflecting heightened volatility. Price remained above the lower band for most of the session, indicating it was trading at the lower end of the recent volatility range.

Volume distribution was uneven, with a sharp spike in ZEC volume during the 23:15–23:30 ET sell-off (42,743.82 ZEC) and again during the 06:00–09:00 ET rebound. Notional turnover during these periods was also elevated, aligning with price action and indicating strong conviction in both directions. A divergence between price and volume during the 10:00–11:00 ET consolidation may suggest weakening conviction in the rally.

The 15-minute Fibonacci retracement levels showed price testing the 61.8% level at 135.95 during the morning rebound. On the daily chart, a major swing high from earlier in October (151.90) acts as a long-term resistance, while the 127.54 low from 23:15 ET serves as a critical short-term support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy aligns with the identified bearish engulfing pattern and overbought RSI conditions seen in the 23:15–23:30 ET sell-off. A hypothetical long entry at the 23:30 ET low (127.91) with a stop-loss at 126.27 (the next Fibonacci level) would have captured the subsequent rebound to 137.89. A trailing stop at 135.00 could have locked in gains before momentum waned. This strategy emphasizes low-risk entries on oversold conditions, leveraging volatility expansion and Fibonacci support levels identified in the analysis.