Zcash/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-10)

Summary
• ZECUSDT opened at $641.89, surged to $684.0, and closed at $605.32 in 24 hours.
• Price swung between key support and resistance, forming bullish and bearish engulfing patterns.
• Volume surged in the final 4.5 hours, exceeding 131,788 units, signaling increased selling pressure.
• RSI hit overbought levels early, then dropped to oversold, indicating volatile momentum swings.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion as volatility picked up, with price closing near the lower band.

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) experienced a volatile 24-hour session on 2025-11-10, with the pair opening at $641.89 and reaching a high of $684.0 before retreating to a close of $605.32. Total volume for the period was 555,259.99, translating to a notional turnover of approximately $348.5 million. The price action reflected strong bearish momentum in the final hours, with the market testing critical support levels below $620.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a series of bullish engulfing patterns early in the session, from 17:00 to 19:30 ET, followed by bearish engulfing formations as sellers took control. A key resistance cluster was identified between $650–$660, where price stalled repeatedly. The $620–$630 zone appears to be a major support area, with a potential breakdown risk if the low of $596.05 is tested again.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the early phase, signaling a temporary bullish bias. However, by the afternoon, the 50-period MA began to pull away, indicating weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA was at $625, suggesting that a close below this level could confirm a bearish trend for the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the late afternoon, with the histogram contracting, indicating fading bullish momentum. The RSI moved from overbought levels (~75 at 07:00 ET) to oversold (~25 by 16:30 ET), highlighting the extreme volatility and exhaustion in both bullish and bearish phases.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly from 19:00 to 17:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band at $605.32, signaling potential oversold conditions and a possible bounce. However, without confirmation above the 20-period MA, further downside into the $596–$600 range remains a risk.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked in the final 4.5 hours, with over $131,788,709 units traded between 14:45 and 16:30 ET. This aligns with the price's drop from $616.29 to $605.32. The divergence between price and volume in the last 30 minutes—where volume rose while price fell—suggests increased bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key $625–$684 swing, the 61.8% level sits near $647 and the 38.2% level at $663. The price currently sits just above the 23.6% level at $659, suggesting it may test the 50% retracement area (~$655) for a potential rebound or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest results reveal a strategy of buying ZECUSDT on every bullish engulfing pattern since January 1, 2022, and holding indefinitely. While the total return is impressive at +417.4%, the strategy suffered a severe maximum drawdown of -91.3%, highlighting the extreme risk involved in holding without exits. The lack of position sizing or risk controls significantly amplifies both gains and losses. For example, repeated entries during bullish engulfing patterns increase capital exposure, which, during a prolonged bearish phase, can lead to massive losses. Sharpe ratio of 0.75 suggests that while the returns are high, the volatility-adjusted performance is moderate. This underscores the need for additional rules—such as stop-loss levels, take-profit targets, or fixed position sizes—to make the strategy more robust and suitable for a broader range of market conditions. If you'd like to refine the strategy further, we can test variations with different risk parameters or apply the same logic to other assets.