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Zcash (ZEC) has surged to a four-year high, driven by a combination of institutional interest, retail FOMO, and technical momentum. The token's price climbed from $34 in August to $280 as of late October, a 710% increase that propelled its market capitalization to nearly $4 billion [1]. This rally has outpaced the broader cryptocurrency market, which lost over $200 billion in value during the same period [1]. Key factors include Grayscale's launch of a ZEC-tracking fund, which opened the door for potential spot ETF filings, and renewed demand for privacy-focused assets amid heightened surveillance concerns [1].
Technical analysis highlights a breakout from a multi-year consolidation pattern. On the weekly chart,
pierced a key resistance level at $54 after a prolonged accumulation phase characterized by low volatility and declining Average True Range (ATR) [1]. The recent surge has pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to 80 and the Stochastic oscillator near 100, signaling overbought conditions [1]. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) formed a bullish crossover in October, reinforcing the uptrend [2]. However, analysts caution that the rally may face resistance at $300, with a potential pullback to $150 or $100 if profit-taking intensifies [1].
Institutional and retail participation has amplified the rally. The Money Flow Index (MFI) for ZEC sits above 95, indicating strong buying pressure, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains positive at 0.25, reflecting sustained institutional inflows . Retail traders have also contributed, with daily trading volume surging to $1.4 billion and futures open interest hitting $350 million [1]. However, leveraged positions pose a risk: Bybit data shows $21.49 million in long exposure versus $3.43 million in shorts, creating a potential liquidity trap if prices drop toward $178 .
Market sentiment has shifted in ZEC's favor. Santiment's Weighted Sentiment indicator turned positive for the first time in months, aligning with Zcash's $2.95 billion market cap milestone-the highest since December 2021 [2]. The token's rally has also been supported by Zashi App's CrossPay feature, which enabled shielded transactions across 20+ blockchains, boosting spot trading volume by 1,150% to $292 million [3].
Despite the bullish momentum, risks persist. The ZEC/USDT chart shows a symmetrical triangle breakout, with the next target at $287.57, but overbought conditions could trigger a retracement to $150.36 [2]. Additionally, the derivatives market is heavily skewed toward longs, with liquidation data suggesting a potential cascade of forced selling if prices dip sharply .
Long-term projections remain optimistic. Fibonacci extensions and historical patterns suggest ZEC could reach $350–$450 in 2025, with extreme scenarios pointing to $2,500–$10,500 [3]. However, these targets depend on maintaining buying pressure above key support levels and avoiding regulatory headwinds for privacy coins [3].
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