YPF Soars 6.44% on Abu Dhabi LNG Deal and Shale Expansion Optimism

Summary
• Abu Dhabi’s XRG inks $115M Vaca Muerta LNG project agreement with YPF
• Q3 2025 earnings call highlights strategic shale expansion amid $198M net loss
• Intraday surge to $39.80 (6.44% gain) amid $2.18M turnover surge

YPF’s 6.44% intraday rally on November 14, 2025, reflects a confluence of geopolitical optimism and operational clarity. The stock surged from a 36.37 intraday low to a 39.80 high, driven by Abu Dhabi’s XRG joining YPF’s LNG export venture and the company’s Q3 earnings call outlining aggressive shale expansion. With the energy sector showing mixed momentum (Exxon up 1.04%), YPF’s move underscores its pivotal role in Argentina’s energy renaissance.

Abu Dhabi LNG Partnership and Shale Resilience Fuel YPF’s Surge
YPF’s 6.44% intraday jump was catalyzed by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (ADNOC) XRG arm agreeing to join YPF’s Vaca Muerta LNG project, a $115M venture to develop Argentina’s shale resources. This partnership, announced alongside YPF’s Q3 earnings call, signals foreign capital inflows into Argentina’s energy sector amid Milei’s pro-market reforms. Despite reporting a $198M net loss, YPF highlighted strategic shale expansion plans, including $400M in sustainable jet fuel investments, positioning it as a key player in South America’s energy transition.

Energy Sector Volatility as Exxon Gains 1.04%
The energy sector exhibited mixed momentum, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 1.04% on strong crude prices, while YPF’s 6.44% surge outpaced peers. This divergence reflects YPF’s unique positioning in Argentina’s shale renaissance versus global oil majors’ exposure to cyclical crude markets. YPF’s rally also aligns with sector updates showing late-afternoon energy stock gains, though recent volatility (e.g., 23.8% spikes in prior weeks) underscores macroeconomic sensitivity.

Options Playbook: Leverage YPF’s Bullish Momentum with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: 32.58 (below current price)
• RSI: 83.04 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.77 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 39.80 (upper band) / 33.03 (middle band)

YPF’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend within a long-term range. Key resistance lies at the 52W high of $47.43, while support is near the 36.08–36.42 200D range. The 39.80 intraday high tests the upper Bollinger Band, indicating aggressive buying pressure. For leveraged exposure, consider YPF20251121C38 and YPF20251121C39, which balance gamma sensitivity and liquidity.

• YPF20251121C38 (Call, $38 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 44.47% (moderate)
- Leverage: 19.77%
- Delta: 0.74 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.193 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1237 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: 1,752 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.98 (max(0, 41.62 - 38))
- Why: High gamma and moderate IV make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario, with theta decay manageable given the Nov 21 expiry.

• YPF20251121C39 (Call, $39 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 44.48% (moderate)
- Leverage: 29.30%
- Delta: 0.60 (balanced sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.178 (aggressive decay)
- Gamma: 0.1481 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 1,112 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $2.92 (max(0, 41.62 - 39))
- Why: Strong gamma and leverage ratio position this as a high-reward play if YPF breaks above $39.80, with liquidity ensuring smooth entry/exit.

Aggressive bulls should target YPF20251121C39 into a close above $39.80, while conservative traders may cap risk with YPF20251121C38.

Backtest YPF Sociedad Anonima Stock Performance
The performance of YPF after a 6% intraday surge from 2022 to now can be summarized as follows:1. Earnings Growth: YPF has shown strong earnings growth, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.02 for Q3 2022, indicating a significant increase from the previous quarter.2. Revenue Increase: The company's revenue has also seen a notable rise, with a consensus estimate of $4.38 billion for Q3 2022, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase.3. Production Growth: YPF's hydrocarbon production has averaged 504 Kboe/d during the quarter, with a 9.2% year-over-year increase, and it climbed to 510 Kboe/d in July due to increased drilling and completion activity.4. Market Performance: Despite the positive earnings and production growth, YPF's stock has lagged the S&P 500's daily gain in recent trading sessions, moving at +1.7% from the previous session, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 2.37%.In conclusion, YPF's performance after the 6% intraday surge from 2022 to now has been impressive, driven by strong earnings and revenue growth, alongside increased hydrocarbon production. However, the stock's recent market performance has been somewhat muted, lagging behind the broader market indices.

YPF’s Shale Gambit: Ride the Wave or Secure Profits?
YPF’s 6.44% rally on Abu Dhabi’s LNG partnership and shale expansion optimism signals short-term momentum, but the overbought RSI (83.04) and 52W high proximity ($47.43) demand caution. Investors should monitor the 36.08–36.42 200D support range and watch for a breakout above $39.80 to validate the bullish case. With Exxon Mobil (XOM) up 1.04%, global energy demand remains a tailwind. Aggressive bulls: YPF20251121C39 into a $39.80 close. Conservative traders: Secure profits near $39.64 with tight stops.