YPF Plunges 5.6% Amid Lingering Uncertainty: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• YPF's stock nosedives 5.6% to $26.10, erasing a week's gains from its Vaca Muerta LNG project announcement
• Intraday range of $25.45 to $28.79 highlights volatile trading amid mixed analyst ratings
• Options market sees heavy put buying at $25-26 strike prices as bearish sentiment intensifies
• Sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) rises 0.47% while YPF's 52-week low of $22.82 looms

YPF Sociedad Anónima's dramatic intraday collapse has traders scrambling for answers. The stock's 5.6% drop to $26.10 follows a week of bullish momentum driven by its partnership with Eni S.p.A. on the Vaca Muerta LNG project. With the U.S. Treasury's $20 billion currency swap offering fading from headlines and bearish options activity accelerating, the energy giant now faces a critical juncture between its ambitious production goals and market skepticism.

Currency Swap Relief Fades as Execution Risks Emerge
YPF's sharp reversal follows the exhaustion of its week-long rally triggered by the U.S. Treasury's $20 billion currency swap with Argentina. While the swap initially stabilized peso markets and boosted investor confidence, the stock's subsequent decline reflects growing concerns about the LNG project's execution risks. The 800-well drilling plan now faces scrutiny over Argentina's fiscal health, with analysts noting the company's 150.9x P/E ratio suggests overvaluation despite its robust production targets. Additionally, the recent $16 billion expropriation lawsuit against Argentina creates a cloud over YPF's long-term profitability, prompting profit-taking and bearish positioning.

Integrated Oil & Gas Sector Splits as XOM Outperforms
The Integrated Oil & Gas sector shows mixed momentum with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 0.47% while YPF tumbles. This divergence highlights YPF's unique exposure to Argentina's political and economic risks. While global peers benefit from stable production environments, YPF's operations remain tethered to Argentina's volatile macroeconomic conditions. The sector's average P/E of 12.48 versus YPF's 150.9x P/E underscores the market's skepticism about the company's ability to sustain its aggressive growth plans.

Bearish Positioning Gains Momentum: Key Options and ETFs to Watch
• 200-day MA: $33.85 (well above current price)
• RSI: 50.99 (neutral territory)
• MACD: -0.785 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $22.58 (lower band) vs $28.72 (upper band)
• Short Interest Ratio: 1.1 days to cover

YPF's technical profile suggests a continuation of its bearish trend, with key support levels at $25.65 (middle Bollinger Band) and $22.58 (lower Bollinger Band). The options market reflects this sentiment through heavy put buying at the $25-26 strike prices. Two standout options for bearish positioning are:

• YPF20251121P25 (Put, $25 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- Implied Volatility: 95.83% (elevated)
- Delta: -0.382 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0268 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0468 (responsive to price moves)
- Turnover: $39,900 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 9.90% (moderate)
This contract offers optimal risk/reward for a 5% downside scenario, with potential payoff of $0.90 per share if YPF drops to $24.29.

• YPF20251121P26 (Put, $26 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- Implied Volatility: 77.69% (reasonable)
- Delta: -0.441 (strong sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0189 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0597 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: $840 (lower liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 10.21% (moderate)
While less liquid than the $25 put, this option provides higher leverage for a 5% move, with potential payoff of $1.21 per share at $24.29.

Aggressive bears should consider YPF20251121P25 as a core position, with a stop-loss at $26.50 to protect against a potential rebound. The $25 put offers the best balance of liquidity, leverage, and sensitivity to YPF's current price action.

Backtest YPF Sociedad Anonima Stock Performance
I have completed the event-study back-test you requested.Key findings (30-day observation window):• 26 plunges of –6 % or worse since 2022 • Average return after 5 trading days: +2.6 % (win-rate ≈ 69 %) • Best mean outcome occurs around the 22-25-day mark (≈ +11 % vs benchmark ≈ +7 %) • None of the excess returns reaches statistical significance at the 95 % level.A detailed interactive report is available below.Please open the interactive panel to explore win-rate curves, cumulative alpha, and per-event drill-downs. Let me know if you’d like to adjust the window length, add stop-loss rules, or examine a different threshold.

Critical Support Levels to Watch as Bearish Momentum Intensifies
YPF's 5.6% intraday drop signals a potential shift in market sentiment, with key support at $25.65 (middle Bollinger Band) and $22.58 (lower Bollinger Band) becoming critical levels. The options market's heavy put buying at the $25-26 strike prices suggests institutional bearishness, while the stock's 150.9x P/E ratio remains unsustainable relative to sector peers. As the U.S. Treasury's currency swap benefits fade, investors should monitor Argentina's fiscal health and YPF's ability to execute its 800-well drilling plan. With sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 0.47%, the contrast between global and Argentina-specific risks has never been clearer. Aggressive bears should prioritize YPF20251121P25 for short-term positioning, while watching for a potential breakdown below $25.65 to confirm the bearish trend.