YPF Sociedad Anonima Plunges 4.89%—Can YPF Rebound Before the 52-Week Low?

Summary
• YPF’s stock slumps to $34.02, down 4.89% from its $35.77 close, with intraday lows at $33.65
• Earnings call highlights strategic investments in sustainable jet fuel but raises questions about short-term execution
• Technicals show overbought RSI (76) and a bullish MACD crossover, yet Bollinger Bands signal bearish pressure
• Options chain reveals aggressive put buying at $32 strike and call activity at $35–$37 strikes

YPF’s sharp intraday decline has ignited a frenzy of options activity and technical debate. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $20.41, investors are scrambling to decipher whether this selloff is a buying opportunity or a deeper correction. The earnings call’s focus on sustainability contrasts with immediate market skepticism, while the options market hints at a volatile near-term outlook.

Earnings Call Doubts and Sustainable Jet Fuel Hesitation
YPF’s Q2 2025 earnings call, led by CEO Horacio Marin and CFO Federico Barroetave, emphasized a $400 million investment in sustainable jet fuel. While this aligns with global decarbonization trends, the market reacted cautiously, interpreting the move as a long-term bet with unclear near-term profitability. The call also highlighted 'international price volatility' as a drag on Q2 results, with Marin acknowledging 'remarkable milestones' but failing to address immediate cash flow concerns. Meanwhile, the $34.02 price point—just $0.02 shy of a key psychological level—has intensified short-term bearish sentiment, as traders anticipate further downside.

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Options Playbook: Aggressive Puts and Call Contingency
• MACD: 0.659 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.187, Histogram: 0.472 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 75.98 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $29.09–$36.33 (bearish pressure)
• 200D MA: $35.19 (above current price), 30D MA: $32.53 (support zone)
• Key Levels: $32.71 (middle BB), $30.87 (30D support), $33.43 (200D support)

Top Options Contracts:
• YPF20250815C35 (Call):
- Strike: $35, Expiry: 2025-08-15, IV: 40.59%, Leverage: 74.10%, Delta: 0.346, Theta: -0.107, Gamma: 0.180, Turnover: 2,417
- IV: High volatility, Leverage: Strong upside potential, Delta: Moderate sensitivity, Theta: Aggressive time decay, Gamma: High sensitivity to price swings
- This call thrives in a volatile rebound scenario. If YPF breaks above $35.19 (200D MA), the 74% leverage amplifies gains, but theta decay demands rapid execution.
• YPF20250815P32 (Put):
- Strike: $32, Expiry: 2025-08-15, IV: 41.88%, Leverage: 213.03%, Delta: -0.144, Theta: -0.003, Gamma: 0.107, Turnover: 16
- IV: Elevated volatility, Leverage: Extreme bearish potential, Delta: Low sensitivity, Theta: Minimal decay, Gamma: Moderate sensitivity
- The $32 put offers outsized leverage (213%) for a 5% downside scenario. If YPF drops below $32.71 (middle BB), this contract could capitalize on a liquidity-driven selloff.

Payoff Estimation:
• YPF20250815C35: 5% downside to $32.32 → max(0, $32.32 - $35) = $0 (no gain).
• YPF20250815P32: 5% downside to $32.32 → max(0, $32 - $32.32) = $0.68 (limited gain).

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls should target a $35.19 breakout with YPF20250815C35, while bears may short YPF20250815P32 if the stock tests $32.71. Watch for a $33.43 (200D MA) breakdown to confirm bearish momentum.

Backtest YPF Sociedad Anonima Stock Performance
YPF has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term performance following a 5% intraday plunge. The backtest data indicates that the 3-day win rate is 51.68%, the 10-day win rate is 55.20%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.56%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 15.72%, which occurred on day 59 after the intraday plunge.

YPF at Crossroads: Liquidity Test or Strategic Rebound?
YPF’s 4.89% intraday drop has exposed a critical juncture. While the $32.71 middle Bollinger Band and $33.43 200D MA offer near-term support, the overbought RSI (76) and bearish MACD divergence suggest further consolidation. Investors must weigh the earnings call’s long-term sustainability narrative against immediate liquidity risks. The sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) gained 1.09%, hinting at broader energy sector resilience. For YPF, a decisive close above $35.19 could reignite bullish momentum, but a breakdown below $32.71 would signal deeper trouble. Action: Monitor $32.71 and $35.19 levels—aggressive buyers may target $35.19 breakouts, while bears should short on a $32.71 breakdown.