The New York Times Q1 2025 Earnings: Navigating Digital Growth Amid Print Declines

The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) is set to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 7, 2025, marking a critical juncture for the media giant as it balances robust digital growth against ongoing declines in traditional print revenue. Analysts and investors will scrutinize metrics such as subscription expansion, advertising trends, and cost management to gauge whether the company’s digital-first strategy can sustain momentum.

Key Metrics to Watch

1. Revenue Growth: Analysts project total revenue of $635.1 million, a 6.9% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in digital subscriptions. Subscription revenue is expected to hit $466.6 million (8.8% growth), with digital-only subscriptions rising 15.7% to $338.9 million. The digital subscriber base is anticipated to reach 11.1 million, underscoring the success of NYT’s focus on digital expansion.
2. Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus estimate stands at $0.34, reflecting a 12.9% year-over-year rise. This aligns with the company’s historical outperformance, including a 25% average earnings surprise over the past four quarters.
3. Advertising Trends: Digital advertising revenue is forecast to grow 9.1% to $68.8 million, while print advertising revenue is projected to fall 13.4% to $35.2 million, highlighting the industry-wide shift to digital.

The Digital Subscription Boom

The NYT’s digital subscription growth remains its crown jewel. In 2024, the company added 1.1 million digital subscribers, with 350,000 added in Q4 alone. This momentum is expected to continue, as the company relaunches its core news app and expands into niche content areas like cooking and games. A 14-17% growth in digital subscription revenue for Q1 2025 would solidify its position as a leader in the digital media space.

However, print revenue continues to decline. Print subscription revenue is anticipated to drop 6.2% to $127.6 million, and print advertising revenue is projected to fall further to $35.2 million. While these declines are manageable, they underscore the urgency of maintaining digital dominance.

Cost Pressures and Profitability

Adjusted operating costs are expected to rise 5-6% year-over-year, driven by investments in technology, content development, and marketing. Despite this, management has guided for disciplined cost management, with adjusted operating profit growing 17% in 2024 to $455 million and margins expanding 150 basis points to 17.6%. Free cash flow of $381 million in 2024 supports shareholder returns, including a 36% dividend hike to $0.18 per share.

Historical Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook

Historically, NYT’s stock reacts positively to earnings, with a 60% probability of a one-day gain over the past five years. The median one-day gain is 3.9%, though volatility persists—negative returns have averaged a -7.5% decline. Analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with a $56 price target, implying a 9% upside from its April 2025 price of $51.21.

Risks and Challenges

• Print Revenue Decline: The sustained drop in print revenue requires relentless innovation in digital offerings.
• Margin Pressure: Rising costs from tech investments could temporarily constrain margins.
• Market Volatility: The stock’s beta of 1.10 suggests heightened sensitivity to broader market swings.

Conclusion: A Digital Future, But Challenges Linger

The New York Times’ Q1 2025 results will hinge on its ability to sustain digital subscription growth while navigating print declines. With 11.1 million digital subscribers and a strategic focus on content diversification, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on its digital-first model. However, investors must monitor cost trends and advertising performance closely.

Historically, the stock has rewarded earnings beats, with a 60% success rate for positive one-day returns and a median gain of 3.9%. If the company meets or exceeds its $0.34 EPS estimate and reinforces its digital leadership, NYT could extend its 12-month high of $58.16, supported by a $56 analyst target.

Yet, the path is not without risks. The print decline and margin pressures from rising costs remain hurdles. For now, the NYT’s digital pivot appears to be paying off, but investors should remain vigilant about execution in a highly competitive media landscape.

In summary, the earnings report will test whether the NYT’s digital renaissance can outweigh its analog challenges—and whether its stock can continue its journey from legacy publisher to digital innovator.