The New York Times: US intelligence says Iran undecided on nuclear bomb

The New York Times: US intelligence says Iran undecided on nuclear bomb

US intelligence officials have concluded that Iran is currently undecided on whether to pursue the development of a nuclear weapon, according to a report from CNN [1]. The assessment, which contradicts recent Israeli warnings, suggests that Iran is not actively working towards obtaining a nuclear bomb and is not expected to have the capability to produce and deliver one within the next three years.

The latest intelligence assessment, shared by four people familiar with the matter, indicates that Iran's nuclear program has been set back by only a few months following a series of Israeli airstrikes. Despite significant damage to Iran's Kermanshah Missile Facility, the heavily fortified enrichment site at Fordow remains untouched, as Israel lacks the capability to damage it without specific US weapons and aerial support [1].

The US intelligence community's assessment is at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claims, who stated that Iran was working on a secret plan to weaponize uranium. Netanyahu's assertion was based on Israeli intelligence that suggested Iran was approaching a point of no return in its nuclear program [1].

US Central Command, responsible for American military operations in the Middle East, has conveyed a more urgent timeline, believing Iran could obtain a usable nuclear weapon more quickly if it were to sprint towards that goal. However, the civilian intelligence community, including the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, maintains that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and has not authorized a nuclear weapons program since 2003 [1].

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a realignment of US forces in the region, with the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group moving to the Middle East without delay. The US is also repositioning naval assets to defend against ballistic missiles, reflecting a heightened sense of urgency regarding the conflict [1].

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed concern that Iran's recent activities could lead to the pursuit of weaponization. However, one source familiar with the latest intelligence stated that Iran is currently reeling and may not have the capacity or expertise to do so [1].

References:

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away