YFI/USDT Market Overview

Summary
• YFI/USDT broke out above 4800 during early New York trading.
• High volatility seen post-19:00 ET with 15-minute candles reaching 4870.
• Downturn observed post-02:00 ET with bearish reversal patterns forming.
• Volume spiked during 19:00–20:15 ET before stabilizing.
• RSI overbought at 76 during peak and fell to 53 by 06:00 ET.

The yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) pair opened at $4505 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $4952 at 03:15 ET before closing at $4815 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume for the period was 563.99814, with a notional turnover of $2,733,255.15.

The structure of the candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours reveals a distinct breakout followed by a consolidation phase. A sharp bullish thrust began at 19:00 ET when the price surged past the 4800 level. This was followed by a peak at 4870, where a bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 20:30 ET, signaling potential exhaustion. A doji star later appeared at 03:45 ET, indicating indecision and hinting at a possible short-term reversal. Support levels were observed at $4800 and $4770, while resistance was at $4870 and $4950. The price has since oscillated between these levels, forming a tight range with moderate volatility.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA at the time of the breakout, confirming the strength of the upward move. On the daily chart, the 50DMA continues to act as a strong support, while the 200DMA remains a key resistance. The price closed near the 50DMA, which suggests that the market is testing the strength of the trendline and may see a continuation or consolidation in the near term.

The MACD histogram showed a sharp increase during the 19:00–20:30 ET window, indicating strong bullish momentum, followed by a rapid contraction as the pair approached 4870. The RSI peaked at 76 during this phase and has since pulled back to 53, suggesting a moderate pullback. The Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout and have since begun to contract, indicating a potential slowdown in volatility. Price has remained within the bands but shows signs of approaching the upper band again in the final hours, which could trigger a correction.

Volume spiked during the breakout phase, with over $110 million traded between 19:00–20:30 ET, and has since declined to average levels. Notional turnover aligned with the price action, showing confirmation in the breakout and divergence in the bearish phase after 21:00 ET. This divergence suggests that the short-term bearish move may not be supported by strong conviction, increasing the likelihood of a rebound.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 4505–4870 move show the 61.8% level at $4766, which has served as a key support. The 38.2% retracement level at $4715 has also been tested and held. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the major swing from $4500–$4952 lies at $4760, reinforcing the idea that this level is crucial for the continuation of the current trend.

The pair may test the $4770 level in the next 24 hours, with a risk of a breakdown if volume increases significantly. A breakout above $4870 could resume the bullish trend, but caution is advised due to the bearish divergence observed in the latter half of the session.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration focuses on detecting early signs of trend continuation or reversal through bullish engulfing and doji patterns, using specific exchange data for YFI/USDT. These candlestick patterns often signal shifts in sentiment, and a 1-day-hold strategy could leverage them for short-term trades. However, given the recent divergence in volume and the mixed signals in the MACD and RSI, the effectiveness of such a strategy could depend on the accuracy of the chosen symbol and exchange data. Confirming the correct ticker format (e.g., BINANCE:YFIUSDT) is crucial before running the backtest from 2022 to the present. This will ensure that the historical data aligns with the current analysis and improves the predictive power of the model.