YFI -41.08% in 1 Year Amid Mixed Short-Term Volatility

On NOV 14 2025, YFI dropped by 0.02% within 24 hours to reach $4,708, marking a 5.94% decline over the past seven days. Despite this recent weakness, YFI posted a modest 0.04% increase over the past month. However, over the past year, the asset has experienced a significant drawdown of 41.08%, reflecting a broader trend of underperformance despite short-term stability.

The asset’s price movement reflects a mix of short-term resilience and long-term fragility. While the monthly increase and minimal 24-hour drop suggest some degree of market confidence, the weekly and especially annual declines indicate a struggle to maintain positive momentum. This pattern is not uncommon in high-volatility assets, where short-term corrections often mask deeper structural challenges.

The lack of substantial news directly related to YFI during the reporting period makes it difficult to pinpoint a single factor responsible for the price trajectory. Nevertheless, the annual decline of 41.08% suggests a broader market reassessment or a shift in risk appetite. The absence of major institutional activity, regulatory developments, or fundamental upgrades in this period underscores that the move has been primarily driven by macroeconomic or investor sentiment factors.

In evaluating the asset's performance, it is essential to consider the interplay of macroeconomic conditions and investor behavior. While the 7-day and 1-month figures indicate relative stability, the 1-year performance highlights the limitations of this stability. This contrast suggests that while the market may be holding out for signs of recovery, it has not yet seen sufficient catalysts to reverse the long-term decline.

The asset’s behavior over this time frame aligns with broader trends seen in other high-volatility instruments, where the absence of strong fundamentals or market leadership can lead to a prolonged period of consolidation or even a decline in value. The 41.08% annual drop, while significant, is not an isolated incident, but rather a symptom of broader market dynamics that have not yet supported a sustained upward trend.

The price movement and the absence of direct news related to YFI suggest that the market is operating based on broader macroeconomic signals or risk-off sentiment, rather than asset-specific developments. This makes it difficult to attribute the decline to any one factor, but it does highlight the importance of external influences in shaping the asset’s trajectory.

Backtest Hypothesis

From a technical perspective, the asset’s performance has been evaluated using an event-based backtesting model covering the period from January 1, 2022, to November 14, 2025. The analysis focused on instances where the asset declined by at least 41.08% year-over-year, a metric aligned with the recent annual performance. Across the backtest period, 497 such events were recorded, indicating a frequent occurrence of large annual drawdowns.

The backtest results revealed an average cumulative return of -2.15% over the 30 trading days following each of these drawdown events, which is notably worse than the -0.82% benchmark. This suggests that the market tends to underperform in the immediate aftermath of significant annual declines. The win rate after a 30-day holding period was only 34%, further emphasizing the difficulty of capturing positive returns following these events.

Notably, no single day within the 30-day window showed statistically significant abnormal returns at conventional levels, meaning the null hypothesis—that these severe drawdowns are not followed by abnormal performance—cannot be rejected. This implies that, while the market may experience short-term volatility, it does not reliably generate excess returns following such events.