Yearn.finance/Tether Market Overview (YFIUSDT)

Summary
• YFIUSDT drifted lower over 24 hours, closing at 4839.0 after testing 4953.0 highs.
• Volatility and volume increased during late ET, especially after 14:30 ET.
• A bearish divergence in RSI suggests potential for further short-term weakness.

The yearn.finance/Tether (YFIUSDT) pair opened at 4883.0 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4839.0 on 2025-11-09 at the same time. The 24-hour range spanned from 4751.0 to 4953.0. Total trading volume amounted to 109.39836 YFI, while the notional turnover reached $542,062.99, factoring in average prices over the interval.

On the 15-minute chart, the price action revealed a series of bearish patterns, including bearish engulfing candles and a long lower shadow at the 19:30 ET session, which marked a pivotal resistance level at 4896.0. Key support levels were observed at 4850.0 and 4800.0, with the 4850.0 level showing repeated retests. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed below the 100-period line, suggesting continued bearish pressure in the broader timeframe.

MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram narrowing after a series of bearish crossovers. The RSI approached overbought territory in the late hours of 11/8, followed by a sharp drop into oversold levels by 12:00 ET on 11/9. This suggests a potential exhaustion of short-term buyers. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 14:30–16:00 ET period, reflecting heightened volatility. Price remained near the lower band for much of the day, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Volume spiked during the late-ET hours, especially between 14:30 and 16:15 ET, during a sharp rally from 4847.0 to 4953.0. This price move was accompanied by a strong increase in volume, indicating genuine conviction from buyers. However, price failed to hold above key resistance levels afterward, suggesting a lack of follow-through. A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 11/8 high of 4953.0 to the 11/9 low of 4751.0 shows 61.8% at 4833.0, aligning with the final close, signaling potential consolidation near that level.

The 15-minute candlestick chart highlights a complex bearish trend, with multiple failed attempts to hold above 4896.0. The price formed a series of lower highs and lower lows over the last 24 hours, with the last notable bearish engulfing candle occurring at 19:30 ET. The bearish momentum is reinforced by a consistent bearish slope in the 20-period moving average and a narrowing MACD histogram. The RSI’s recent drop below 30 and the divergence in momentum indicators suggest a probable continuation of the downtrend in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves using the 14-day RSI to identify overbought conditions, with a long-entry signal generated when RSI exceeds 70 and a short-entry signal when it drops below 30. The pair has shown a history of overbought conditions followed by sharp corrections, making this strategy viable for momentum traders. If we apply this to the current data, a short-entry signal was evident at 19:30 ET when RSI fell below 30. Holding for five days would align with the observed volatility and key Fibonacci retracement levels. Further refinement could include filtering signals with volume spikes for confirmation, which adds robustness to the strategy.