Yatsen (YSG) Plummets 32.5%: A Volatile Intraday Collapse Sparks Market Alarm

Summary
• Yatsen Holding Limited (YSG) slumps to $3.80, a 32.5% drop from its previous close of $5.63
• Intraday range spans $3.30 to $5.63, signaling extreme volatility
• 52-week range of $3.01–$11.57 highlights current price near multi-year lows
• Dynamic PE of -21.45 and 1.68% turnover rate underscore liquidity challenges
• Sector peers like Procter & Gamble (PG) rise 0.66%, contrasting YSG’s freefall

Yatsen’s intraday freefall has ignited market speculation, with the stock trading at its lowest level since late 2023. The sharp decline, occurring amid a broader market rally, raises urgent questions about catalysts, liquidity dynamics, and sector alignment. With technical indicators flashing bearish signals and options activity muted, investors face a critical juncture in assessing the stock’s near-term trajectory.

Bearish Momentum Unleashed by Liquidity Crunch and Technical Breakdown
Yatsen’s 32.5% intraday plunge reflects a confluence of technical exhaustion and liquidity collapse. The stock breached key support levels, including the 200-day moving average ($7.12) and 100-day average ($8.18), triggering algorithmic selling. A short-term bearish K-line pattern, coupled with an RSI of 40.0 (oversold territory), suggests capitulation by longs. The MACD (-0.40) and negative histogram (-0.42) confirm bearish momentum. With a 1.68% turnover rate and 102,854 shares traded, the move appears driven by forced liquidation rather than organic demand.

Household & Personal Products Sector Diverges as Procter & Gamble Outperforms
While Yatsen’s Household & Personal Products sector faces mixed performance, Procter & Gamble (PG) leads with a 0.66% intraday gain. PG’s $140.51 price and $328B market cap contrast sharply with YSG’s $3.80 and $356.75M valuation. The sector’s defensive nature typically insulates against volatility, yet YSG’s collapse highlights structural fragility. PG’s 19.77 P/E ratio versus YSG’s -21.45 dynamic P/E underscores divergent fundamentals.

Bearish Playbook: Options and ETFs for a Volatile Landscape
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day MA: $7.12 (below current price)
- RSI: 40.0 (oversold)
- MACD: -0.40 (bearish)
- Bollinger Bands: $5.11–$6.93 (price at lower band)

Trading Setup: YSG’s breakdown below $5.10 (lower Bollinger Band) and 200-day MA signals a high-probability short-term bearish trade. Key support at $3.01 (52W low) offers a 10% buffer for aggressive shorts. The 30-day support range ($5.63–$5.66) may trigger a bounce, but momentum remains decisively bearish.

Options Analysis:
- YSG20260717P2.5 (Put Option):
• Strike: $2.50 | Expiry: 2026-07-17 | IV: 28.19% | Delta: -0.016 | Theta: -0.000063 | Gamma: 0.047 | Turnover: 0
• Payoff: At 5% downside ($3.61), intrinsic value = $1.11 (max(0, 3.61–2.50))
• Rationale: High leverage (762%) and moderate IV position this as a speculative deep-out-of-the-money put for extreme bearish scenarios.
- YSG20260717C5 (Call Option):
• Strike: $5.00 | Expiry: 2026-07-17 | IV: 16.21% | Delta: 0.028 | Theta: -0.000090 | Gamma: 0.136 | Turnover: 0
• Payoff: At 5% downside ($3.61), intrinsic value = $0 (max(0, 3.61–5.00))
• Rationale: Low delta and IV make this a poor short-term play, but gamma sensitivity (0.136) could benefit from volatility spikes.

Action: Aggressive bears may consider YSG20260717P2.5 for a 5% downside scenario, but liquidity constraints (zero turnover) pose execution risks. A safer approach: short YSG at $3.80 with a stop above $5.10 and target $3.01.

Backtest Yatsen Stock Performance
The backtest of YSG's performance after a -33% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-Day win rate is 48.12%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.67%, and the 30-Day win rate is 48.56%. The maximum return during the backtest was 8.98%, with a maximum return day of 59.

Critical Crossroads: Yatsen’s Freefall Demands Immediate Tactical Response
Yatsen’s 32.5% collapse signals a potential inflection point, with technical indicators and liquidity dynamics aligning for continued bearish pressure. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low ($3.01) and breakdown below key moving averages suggest a high probability of testing that level. Sector leader Procter & Gamble’s 0.66% gain highlights divergent trajectories, underscoring YSG’s unique fragility. Investors must prioritize risk management: short positions should target $3.01 with stops above $5.10, while longs face a high-conviction challenge. Watch for a breakdown below $3.30 (intraday low) to confirm a new bearish regime.