Summary
• XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 45.243 and traded between 43.773 and 45.243, closing at 43.773.
• Price experienced a sharp 15-minute decline at 19:15 ET, forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
• High volatility observed in late hours with key support at 43.773 holding.
XRP/Mexican Peso (XRPMXN) opened at 45.243 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 43.773 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The 24-hour range was between 43.773 and 45.243. Total volume was 222.5
, while total notional turnover was approximately 9,663.93 MXN. Price action suggests bearish
developed through the early evening, with support levels tested late into the session.
Structure & Formations
The 15-minute chart highlights key resistance near 45.243, where the price opened and traded flat until a sharp downward move at 19:15 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at this time, confirming bearish bias. A small bullish reversal was observed near 23:45 ET, with a 15-minute candle rising to 44.333 from 43.995. However, this failed to break above 44.333, indicating ongoing pressure. A potential support zone appears near 43.773, where the price held firm into the morning.
Moving Averages
Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart show a strong bearish crossover at 19:15 ET. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are all bearish, with the 50-period line above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting continued downward pressure.
MACD & RSI
The 15-minute MACD turned negative at 19:15 ET and remained bearish for the rest of the session. The RSI hit oversold territory in the early morning, reaching a low of 27 at 07:15 ET. This suggests potential for a near-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains dominant.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility increased in the evening, with the upper band at 45.243 and the lower band falling to 43.63. The price tested the lower band during the early hours of 2025-11-12 but failed to close below it, suggesting temporary support at 43.773.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during key price moves, most notably at 19:15 ET and 07:15 ET. The 19:15 ET candle had a volume of 100 XRP, while the 07:15 ET candle had 4.5 XRP. Turnover spiked in tandem with volume, with the 19:15 ET candle accounting for 4,431 MXN of total turnover. These spikes confirm bearish pressure and early morning buying interest.
Fibonacci Retracements
Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing from 45.243 to 43.773, the 61.8% level is at 44.333. The price briefly reached this level near 23:45 ET but failed to hold it. The 38.2% retracement is at 44.736, which remains untested during the 24-hour period.
Backtest Hypothesis
To proceed with an accurate back-test, it is essential to confirm which price series to use: 1. XRPMXN (XRP quoted in Mexican pesos) or 2. XRPUSD.UDC (XRP quoted in US dollars). Once confirmed, the RSI data can be retrieved, and the strategy can be run from 2022-01-01 through today. This will allow for a robust assessment of how the identified patterns, volume spikes, and Fibonacci levels have historically influenced price action.
Comments
No comments yet