XRPJPY Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Move with Key Resistance in Focus

Summary
• XRP/Yen opened at ¥346.91 and closed at ¥346.27, with a high of ¥347.76 and low of ¥322.18.
• Notable bearish reversal and bullish continuation patterns emerged during the session.
• Volume surged to 1.4M on the decline to ¥322.18, suggesting increased bearish conviction.
• Price hovered near the upper Bollinger Band during the final hours, indicating heightened volatility.
• RSI approached overbought levels at the session high and oversold at the low, reflecting a volatile 24-hour range.

XRPJPY opened at ¥346.91 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥346.27 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The pair reached a high of ¥347.76 and a low of ¥322.18 over the 24-hour period. The total volume was approximately 4,604,654.6 units, and the total notional turnover was roughly ¥1,591,902,143.50 (approximate based on average pricing). The 24-hour range was unusually wide, reflecting heightened volatility.

The candlestick pattern showed a sharp bearish reversal from ¥345.00 to ¥322.18 on strong volume, followed by a strong countertrend rally. A notable bullish engulfing pattern occurred at 02:30–02:45 ET, which marked the start of the recovery. A doji candle at the low near ¥322.18 suggests indecision among bears. Resistance levels to watch include ¥347.76 (24-hour high) and ¥345.46 (key recent pivot). Support is likely near ¥335.89 and ¥331.34 from earlier corrections.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bullish at the close, crossing above recent swing lows. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be a key support level, currently around ¥336. The 200-period MA sits at approximately ¥330, acting as a long-term floor. Price action closed above both 20 and 50-period MAs, indicating short-term bullish momentum.

The 24-hour RSI reached a low of 23.1 at ¥322.18 and closed at 57.5, suggesting the pair is now in a balanced momentum phase. The MACD (12,26,9) showed a bullish crossover late in the session, with the histogram turning positive around 04:00–06:00 ET. Price action and momentum appear to be aligning in a bullish direction, especially during the last 4 hours of the session. However, caution is warranted as the RSI remains within a wide trading range.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the decline to ¥322.18 and contracted briefly during the rebound. At the close, price was near the upper band again, suggesting elevated volatility. The 20-period standard deviation was at 5.7, higher than the average of 4.1 over the previous week. This indicates that volatility is still elevated and that a contraction may be due, which could lead to a consolidation phase.

Volume surged to 225,891.1 units during the sharp decline to ¥322.18, indicating bearish conviction. The rally back to ¥346.27 was supported by consistent volume, with the highest hourly turnover at ¥333.02. Notional turnover on the bearish leg was much higher than on the rally, suggesting bears were more aggressive. However, the closing hours saw a balanced volume profile, with no clear divergence.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 24-hour low at ¥322.18 to the high at ¥347.76 show that the close at ¥346.27 is near the 88.6% retracement level. This suggests that bulls are attempting to reclaim key resistance. On the 15-minute chart, the ¥345.46 level aligns with both the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels, making it a key target for further bullish movement.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the absence of a confirmed XRPJPY RSI data series, the strategy can be adapted by either: 1) using a confirmed XRP-JPY ticker symbol from a supported data source (e.g., XRPJPY.UDC for Bloomberg or TradingView), or 2) combining XRP-USD price data with USD-JPY exchange rates to derive a synthetic XRPJPY time series. This synthetic approach allows for the calculation of a daily RSI, which can be used to test mean-reversion or trend-following strategies. For example, a 14-period RSI-based strategy could trigger buy signals at oversold levels (RSI < 30) and sell signals at overbought levels (RSI > 70), with stop-loss and take-profit targets based on the 24-hour volatility profile. Given the recent volatility and clear Fibonacci levels, a retracement-based RSI strategy could offer a robust framework for further testing.