XRPJPY Market Overview

Summary
• XRPJPY rose 3.2% over the last 24 hours, closing at 386.24 after a volatile session.
• A key bullish engulfing pattern appeared on the 15-minute chart late in the session.
• Volume spiked over 190,000 units during the breakout, supporting the recent upward move.

XRPJPY opened at 363.38 on November 12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 386.24 on November 13 at the same time. The 24-hour high and low were 389.87 and 359.85 respectively. Total volume for the period was 3,092,653.4 units with a notional turnover of approximately ¥1,193,989,740. The pair has entered a bullish phase following a consolidation in the 360–370 range.

Structure & Formations

A clear support level emerged around 360.48 after a rejection on the 19:30 candle, followed by a strong break above 370. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around the 21:15 candle on November 12, suggesting a shift in momentum. Price has since extended above 385, with 360.48, 370.83, and 380.01 as key supports and 391.27, 394.34, and 399.87 as primary resistances.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (369.02) and 50-period MA (367.15) have both been crossed by the price action in the past 24 hours, confirming a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 371.09, and the 200-period MA at 365.82, indicating that the price is comfortably above the long-term average and gaining upward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned positive and is crossing above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish breakout. The RSI is at 54, indicating neutral momentum, but has shown a gradual rise from 44 earlier in the session. While not overbought, the RSI suggests a continuation of the upward trend is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Price has recently moved above the upper Bollinger Band following a contraction in the late hours of November 12. The 20-period Bollinger Band width has expanded from 1.2 to 3.5, suggesting a surge in volatility. The current price is trading at the upper edge of the band, signaling potential for a pullback but also continued strength.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 192,531.2 units at the 04:00 candle on November 13, aligning with a breakout above 385. Turnover during that candle was ¥73,977,433. The price and volume divergence has been largely in agreement, with higher highs and higher volume supporting the trend. However, the last three 15-minute candles show a slight drop in volume despite continued upward movement, hinting at a possible near-term pause.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 382.5–394.8 swing shows the 38.2% level at 387.3 and the 61.8% at 390.9, with price currently approaching 390.9. On the daily chart, the 360.48–389.87 swing has the 61.8% level near 385.6, and the price is now hovering slightly above it. These levels may act as pivot points in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A 24-hour backtest of a long-only strategy based on the appearance of a Bullish Engulfing candle pattern shows a total cumulative return of 39.0% from January 2022 to November 2025. The average trade return of +0.92% suggests the pattern provides a modest edge, but with a high maximum drawdown of 12.0% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.46, the risk-reward profile remains uneven. The strategy appears most effective during breakout scenarios, such as the recent move above 385, where volume and momentum confirmed the signal.