XRPJPY Market Overview: 24-Hour Technical Summary

• XRPJPY declined from 393.28 to 385.89, closing near the session low with bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening bullish momentum with potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility has expanded, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band in the final hours.
• Volume picked up in late trading, suggesting renewed selling pressure.
• A Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged near the high, hinting at short-term bearish bias.

Market Overview

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-01, XRPJPY opened at 391.81, traded to a high of 393.28, a low of 384.49, and closed at 385.89. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 1,037,301.9 units, with notional turnover reaching approximately 389.26 million Yen.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours showed a bearish bias, with a notable breakdown from 390.00 to 385.89. A Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged around the 19:30–20:00 ET window, where a long bearish candle fully engulfed a preceding bullish candle, signaling short-term bearish momentum. The 385.00–386.00 zone appears to have acted as a strong support cluster, with price bouncing multiple times in the final hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both show a downtrend, with the 20-period below the 50-period, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA, which may signal a potential crossover event with bearish implications.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the late afternoon, indicating a shift in momentum to bearish. The RSI dropped below 30 during the final hours, pointing to oversold territory. While this could suggest a short-term rebound, it is more likely that the downward trend will continue as long as the RSI remains below 35 and the MACD remains negative.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased in recent hours, with the Bollinger Bands expanding from a narrow 5.0 pip range to a 7.5 pip range. Price has now moved below the lower band, a classic bearish signal. This suggests that the market is in a phase of aggressive selling, and the next support target appears to be at the 383.00–384.00 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly in the last 6 hours of the 24-hour window, peaking at 89,282.6 units in the 03:30–04:00 ET hour. Notional turnover followed the same trend, with the largest turnover spike at 31.5 million Yen during the same period. The divergence between price and volume is minimal, indicating that the bearish move is well-supported by trading activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 393.28 to 384.49, the 61.8% level aligns with 387.00, which was tested multiple times during the final hours. A breakdown below the 385.00 level would expose the 383.00 level, which is a key psychological support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bearish Engulfing pattern identified around the 19:30–20:00 ET window offers a compelling short-term trading signal. A backtesting strategy could be built on detecting such patterns and entering a short position at the close of the engulfing candle. With the 20-period MA and RSI both confirming bearish momentum, the signal has strong technical support. Using the confirmed pattern as an entry trigger, and exiting at the close of the next candle would allow for a disciplined approach to capturing the downward move while minimizing exposure to potential false breakouts. Confirming the exact ticker symbol and trade timing rules will allow for a precise back-test over the 2022–2025 period, using historical data.