XRPJPY Market Overview: 2025-11-03

• XRPJPY declined 24 hours to 370.78 Yen, down from 385.84 at 12:00 ET−1, with a high of 389.23 and low of 362.12
• A bearish engulfing pattern at 385.84–384.16 on 11/02/2025 confirmed bearish momentum, followed by a 3% drop in 5 hours
• Volatility expanded sharply, with Bollinger Band width increasing by ~25% in the last 12 hours; RSI turned oversold at 27
• Total volume hit 1.33M XRP, up 32% from prior 24 hours, while notional turnover surged to ¥490.2M
• Short-term MACD crossed bearish, and 20SMA broke below 50SMA on the 15-min chart, signaling a trend shift

XRPJPY opened at 385.84 Yen on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 370.78 Yen on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 389.23 and a low of 362.12 during the period. Total volume traded was 1,330,644 XRP, with notional turnover reaching ¥490,239,378. The 24-hour session shows a clear bearish bias driven by high-volume selling and a strong bearish engulfing pattern.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 385.84–384.16 on 2025-11-02, confirming a reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment. This was followed by a sharp 3% drop in 5 hours, reaching 376.95 by 03:15 ET. Key support levels have since emerged at 375.00 and 369.00, with the latter acting as a temporary floor. On the higher timeframe, daily resistance is now at 386.00, with a breakdown below 375.00 likely to trigger further short-term weakness.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The 50SMA has been trending downward at ~379.00, suggesting price remains below critical momentum lines. On the daily chart, XRPJPY is trading below all major moving averages, including the 50DMA (~384.00), 100DMA (~388.00), and 200DMA (~391.00). This reinforces a bearish bias in both short- and medium-term horizons.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed bearish, indicating a shift in momentum. The MACD line is currently at -1.5 with a signal line at -0.8, suggesting further bearish divergence. RSI has fallen to 27, entering oversold territory, though this does not guarantee a reversal—price action must confirm a bullish bounce before taking that signal seriously. Divergence between the MACD and price is notable as price continued to fall despite MACD narrowing, signaling potential exhaustion in the short-term bear trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly over the last 12 hours, with Bollinger Band width widening by ~25%. Price is currently trading near the lower band (~369.00–370.00), reinforcing oversold conditions. A break below this level would suggest a continuation of the bear trend, while a close above the middle band (~375.00) could signal a short-term reversal. The bands are now wide open, suggesting higher volatility is likely to persist.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the bearish engulfing pattern, peaking at 88,327.8 XRP in the candle that closed at 370.78. Notional turnover increased from ¥12.6M to ¥24.6M in the last 24 hours, with the largest trades occurring between 15:00 and 16:00 ET. Price and volume action are aligned, confirming the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume would be a red flag for trend fatigue, but none is evident currently.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 385.84 to 362.12 shows key levels at 376.84 (38.2%), 371.98 (50%), and 367.12 (61.8%). Price is currently at ~370.78, suggesting 61.8% is the next immediate support. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level from the recent high of 389.23 would be around 378.49, which is now acting as resistance in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Shorting XRPJPY following a bearish engulfing pattern and holding for 3 days has shown limited profitability over the past 39 occurrences since 2022. The average 3-day P&L for such trades was -1.05%, and the win rate was 51%, indicating no statistically significant edge. This aligns with the current bearish momentum and oversold RSI, but highlights the risk of mean reversion if the market rebounds. Traders may consider tighter filters, such as confirming overbought RSI levels or higher volume engulfings, to improve edge. Given the current setup, a short bias remains viable but should be managed with stop-loss and time-based exit rules to control risk.