XRPJPY Market Overview for 2025-09-24

• XRPJPY surged 7.4% over the last 24 hours, driven by a late-night rebound and morning rally.
• Key resistance levels at 435.76 and 427.44 tested, with volume confirming the break.
• Volatility expanded sharply as price moved between 413.74 and 439.82, indicating active market participation.
• RSI and MACD showed bullish momentum, with RSI rising into overbought territory.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged post-12:00 ET, suggesting potential follow-through.

At 12:00 ET, XRPJPY opened at 427.01, surged to a high of 439.82, declined to a low of 413.74, and closed at 438.43. Total volume reached 1.25 million XRP, while turnover was approximately ¥537,753,400. This 24-hour period saw a significant rally, especially after a sharp dip into the 413–416 range, followed by a strong reversal into the 430s.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support levels at 418.26 and 413.74 before a strong reversal began around 04:15 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern formed from 12:00 to 12:15 ET on 2025-09-24, indicating a potential shift in sentiment. A large bullish candle at 06:30 ET broke above a descending wedge, confirming a breakout above 425.00. The 15-minute chart also showed a doji at 03:45 ET, suggesting indecision during the early recovery phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved well above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA by midday, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA, forming a golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-SMA (at ~425.00) was taken out by the late morning surge, and the 100- and 200-day SMAs (~417.00 and ~410.00) provided strong support during the earlier dip.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed above zero in the early morning and remained in positive territory, signaling strong momentum. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) after the 06:30 ET high, confirming the strength of the rally. A divergence between price and RSI was noted in the 03:00–04:30 ET range, suggesting a possible short-term pullback before the final surge.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply as price moved from the lower band to well above the upper band. The 15-minute Bollinger Bands widened after 05:00 ET, indicating increased uncertainty and activity. Price remained above the upper band for most of the session, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning recovery, especially around the 06:30 and 09:45 ET candles. The 06:30 ET candle had one of the highest volumes (74,569.5 XRP) and confirmed a breakout above the 425.00 level. Notional turnover increased alongside price, with a peak at 435.88 (¥73.5 million), suggesting strong institutional or large-cap investor participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 413.74 to 439.82 swing were at 38.2% (~426.00) and 61.8% (~433.50). Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before pushing higher, indicating a strong move beyond expected retracement levels. The 38.2% level acted as a minor support early in the recovery phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy relies on identifying a bullish engulfing pattern following a 3–4 candle bearish consolidation. This occurred at 12:00–12:15 ET as price broke out of a short-term range. A long entry at the open of the 12:15 ET candle with a stop loss below the 426.09 low would have captured the full 5.6% rally to 438.43. The strategy could be backtested on daily and 1-hour charts, with additional filters like RSI above 50 and volume above 20-day average for higher confidence.