Why Did XRP Whales Buy 170 Million Tokens Despite 9% Price Drop?

XRP whales have accumulated 170 million tokens in recent weeks despite a 9% price drop. Large holders with balances between 10 million and 100 million XRP now control 17.04% of the circulating supply, the highest share in recent history. This movement suggests a strategic consolidation of XRP by influential investors during a period of weakness.

The drop in XRP's price has coincided with reduced supply on major exchanges like Binance. Approximately 200 million XRP tokens have moved off the platform, reducing its supply ratio from 0.027 to 0.025 in ten days. This typically indicates that large holders are transferring coins into private wallets rather than leaving them available for immediate sale.

Glassnode data shows total XRP balances on exchanges have declined nearly 55% since late 2025. This reduction in available supply signals reduced short-term sell pressure and could eventually lead to a price increase if demand remains stable.

Why Did This Happen?

XRP whale activity is a key factor behind the recent accumulation. Institutional investors and large holders are buying the asset during its price decline, reflecting a belief in its long-term value. This behavior could reduce circulating supply pressure and potentially support a future price rebound.

The movement aligns with broader trends in institutional adoption. Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF, launched in November 2025, holds 118 million XRP tokens, valued at $216.37 million. This ETF and others from firms like Bitwise and Grayscale reflect growing institutional interest in the asset class.

How Markets Responded

Despite whale activity and ETF inflows, XRP's price remains below $1.50, a key level for potential breakouts. Weekly inflows into XRP spot ETFs dropped by nearly 95% between February 6 and February 20, signaling weakening institutional confidence.

XRP has also fallen below its weekly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) since February 18. This technical indicator suggests that institutions are holding at a loss and may be less inclined to buy. The price has dropped nearly 26% since breaking below VWAP, a pattern historically linked to further downside.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market analysts are closely monitoring key price levels and on-chain metrics. The MVRV-Z Score for XRP has fallen below zero, indicating the asset is undervalued compared to its realized price. This situation historically signals a potential recovery and may attract further accumulation by large investors.

A bearish divergence in the RSI suggests XRP could face further correction if the $1.379 level is breached. However, if the price holds above $1.40–$1.43, it could signal a recovery toward $1.71. A successful breakout above this level may set the stage for a return to $2.40.

The SEC's decision on T. Rowe Price's XRP ETF application, due on February 26, is also drawing attention. Approval could boost XRP's institutional credibility and bring additional liquidity to the market.

Public XRPL metrics have declined significantly, but the drop may not reflect reduced network demand. The activation of XLS-81, a permissioned decentralized exchange system, has likely shifted activity to private channels, reducing public visibility. This suggests the network's strength is not accurately reflected in traditional metrics.

XRP recorded its largest weekly realized loss since 2022, a sign of market capitulation. Historically, such events have been followed by significant price recoveries. While a repeat is not guaranteed, this pattern increases the likelihood of a bottom forming in the near term.